Surface analysis has the center of circulation in extreme SW Georgia... Or NE of you.
Buoy 12 nm south of Orange Beach,AL is reporting a 2.2mb drop in pressure over the last 3 hours. Other buoys are reporting less than 0.9mb over 3 hours.
15/1900z 42012 30.1N -87.6W Temperature 25.9 Dew Point 25.0 Wind from 170degrees at 25kts Gusting to 31kts Peak wind from 160degrees at 31kts Pressure 1013.4mb Pressure Tendancy -2.2mb SST 30.1 Wave height 1.5m Wave period 6seconds 42012
edit: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 227 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)... THE ONE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MODELS RUNS IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (REMNANTS OF TD5) IS NOW PROGGED TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH OUT OVER THE PANHANDLE WATERS BEFORE HEADING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS HAS LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PROBABILITIES FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS UPGRADED THIS TO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS TIME. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE WEAK CIRCULATION OVER OUR AREA AROUND THE SOUTHERN GA/AL STATE LINE AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TAE/AFDTAE
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Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong?
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