Your first thought is still good. A couple of hours ago Pensacola NAS had gusts to 35mph out of the south - associated with a thunderstorm. Dauphin Island is southwest (maybe west southwest) of the center so a southeast wind direction is something that was generated by the convection in the area. The movement of the system to the southwest has picked up a little, but at 8PM EDT it will still be over land. The 18Z BAM run really keeps the center close to the coast. ED
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