Watching Wave 95L for Next Week

Good evening or a very early good morning! The remnants of TD5 are now re-emerging over the GOM near Applachacola (AQQ), FL. Surface and marine (buoy) observations reveal the system at 03Z just inland near AQQ. Movement is SSW at about 10 mph at this typing. There is a convective complex west of the center with very small vortices embedded. I cannot dismiss the possibility this may be a new center or 2nd center in the broader circulation.

Looking at 850 millibars this evening at 16/00Z; the vorticity center was located just to the north over Tallahassee (TAE), FL. I could find no vorticity or mid-level circulation at 500 millibars.. A pair of 595 decameter ridge height centers were located over AR/MS/LA and TN/NC/GA. The 500 millibar barotropic chart with temperature/depression plots revealed an upper level low - a 586 height center near 24.5N 92.0W however I could not find this low on water vaport satellite.

There is good outflow from all convective activity rotating anti-clock extending south, south-west and west. Wind Shear analysis reveals 20 knot isotachs from 60 NM offshore and 30 knot isotachs from 120 NM offshore. The depression is not progged to venture too offshore however I do believe the system will steer a bit further south than previously forecasted given the upper highs over the South Central and SE USA but not very much more than progged.

Looking at VAD winds out of Mobile, AL reveal Northwest winds at 1000' veering to 010 degrees at 15 knots at 2000', 040 at 20 knots at 3000' and 040 at 30 knots at 4000'.

Winds at Eglin AFB, FL reveal winds of 360 at 10 knots at 1000', 020 at 15 knots at 2000', 030 at 15 knots at 3000' and 030 at 20 knots at 4000' - verifying the center and circulation aloft is east of both locations at this typing.

Turning to the global models tonight the GFS continues to forecast the system as a possible tropical storm upon landfall in SE LA and S LA; the other models; at minimum a depression. The models have done a very, very good job at handling the remains of TD5 though there has been some convective feedback with the GFS and has this system too strong. General consensus is believe re-development into a "real" TD is plausible and NHC now has projected redevelopment at 50 percent.

Y'all have a wonderful evening/morning...take care all; it's going to be a really interesting Monday!!!

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Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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