Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Re: Remnant TD5 Analysis - Aug 16/04Z
Mon Aug 16 2010 08:09 AM
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Quote:
Latest Track models are out. Range of early cycle models is between the MS/ AL Border and Grand Isle,LA.
These will change every 6 hours, but it will give an idea of the possible direction of the system.
Interesting is the SHIPS model. It actually intensifies the storm north of New Orleans.
But then we are talking about TD 5. It's worse than the energizer bunny. 
Thanks for the laugh, Danny. I REALLY needed a laugh this morning (woke up sick in the middle of the night).
I still believe the NHC is under-estimating the probability of re-development, personally. Looking at the early morning satelllite loop, I would put it at 80%. A LLC is clearly evident on Eglin radar. Convection is building around the LLC, as shown on satellite loops. Is it the most organized storm ever? No... but, it is, in my opinion, more organized than it was six hours before the previous final advisory was written. In my judgement, unless the system falls apart in the next two hours, the NHC should issue an advisory at 11am, to re-post tropical storm warnings. They may be reluctant to do so, because they posted them once before for this system and then it losts organization before moving onshore the first time, but conditions are more favorable this time around. I feel a bit like I'm watching a rerun of Katrina, in reverse order and obviously on a much less intense scale - with Katrina, the first time was the more intense, with this system I think the second go-round is going to be the more intense. I still don't expect much more than a minimal tropical storm at landfall, simply because of the timing, but, well, this IS Five we're talking about... it's ALIVE 
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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