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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 285 (Idalia) , Major: 285 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 285 (Idalia) Major: 285 (Idalia)
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allan
Weather Master


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Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Basin On Hold Again
      Tue Aug 17 2010 05:39 PM

Just pointing something out here. Most models develop the wave that "fizzled" out 24 hours from now, apparently SAL is not as strong and the satellite shows the waves moisture field a bit large and should keep the storm in tact, away from dry air and SAL. If models are right, which is a big IF, then we will have our first Cape Verde Hurricane of the season. The wave in back of the current one has little model support off and on from the GFS. The 12Z GFS doesn't develop it though. Ridging is looking more clearer as the NAO becomes positive, the GFS looks to be responding to that showing the wave that sort of weakened after exiting Africa as a category 2-3 storm hitting North Florida in 276 hours from now. It's foolish to believe it, but not so foolish to see that the models are consistent with it, hinting at a long track storm next week. It'll be interesting how the troughs and highs play out with this one. The models are now showing that the Atlantic will start to get active next week onward into the Hurricane Season.

(Some off-topic material was removed.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 17 2010 10:23 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching Wave 95L for Next Week Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Aug 17 2010 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Basin On Hold Again typhoon_tip   Sat Aug 21 2010 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Basin On Hold Again WeatherNut   Sat Aug 21 2010 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Basin On Hold Again MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 19 2010 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Basin On Hold Again berrywr   Wed Aug 18 2010 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Basin On Hold Again Fairhopian   Wed Aug 18 2010 12:30 AM
. * * Re: Basin On Hold Again Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Aug 17 2010 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Basin On Hold Again WesnWylie   Tue Aug 17 2010 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Basin On Hold Again berrywr   Tue Aug 17 2010 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Basin On Hold Again scottsvb   Tue Aug 17 2010 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Basin On Hold Again allan   Tue Aug 17 2010 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Basin On Hold Again Fairhopian   Tue Aug 17 2010 05:36 PM
. * * Re: Basin On Hold Again Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 17 2010 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Basin On Hold Again WesnWylie   Tue Aug 17 2010 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - 16/2230Z berrywr   Tue Aug 17 2010 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - 16/2230Z Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 16 2010 11:45 PM
. * * Remnants of TD5 - 16/2230Z berrywr   Mon Aug 16 2010 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - 16/2030Z danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 16 2010 08:48 PM
. * * Remnants of TD5 - 16/1930Z berrywr   Mon Aug 16 2010 07:32 PM
. * * Recon danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 16 2010 06:23 PM
. * * Re: Remnant TD5 Analysis - Aug 16/04Z Hugh   Mon Aug 16 2010 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Remnant TD5 Analysis - Aug 16/0930Z berrywr   Mon Aug 16 2010 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Remnant TD5 Analysis - Aug 16/04Z danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 16 2010 04:28 AM
. * * Remnant TD5 Analysis - Aug 16/04Z berrywr   Mon Aug 16 2010 03:56 AM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 16 2010 03:02 AM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 Hugh   Mon Aug 16 2010 12:56 AM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 WesnWylie   Mon Aug 16 2010 12:53 AM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 Hugh   Mon Aug 16 2010 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 15 2010 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 Hugh   Sun Aug 15 2010 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 15 2010 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 Hugh   Sun Aug 15 2010 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 15 2010 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? Hugh   Sun Aug 15 2010 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? Hugh   Sun Aug 15 2010 10:02 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? DestinFisherman   Sun Aug 15 2010 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 15 2010 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? Hugh   Sun Aug 15 2010 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 15 2010 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 15 2010 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? Hugh   Sun Aug 15 2010 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 15 2010 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? DestinFisherman   Sun Aug 15 2010 05:56 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? Hugh   Sun Aug 15 2010 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? mwillis   Sun Aug 15 2010 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? Hugh   Sun Aug 15 2010 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? orlandoweather   Sun Aug 15 2010 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? WesnWylie   Sun Aug 15 2010 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? Hugh   Sun Aug 15 2010 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? WesnWylie   Sun Aug 15 2010 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? Hugh   Sun Aug 15 2010 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 15 2010 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 15 2010 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? berrywr   Sun Aug 15 2010 06:01 AM
. * * Re: Wait and Watch or Vice Versa MichaelA   Sat Aug 14 2010 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Wait and Watch or Vice Versa Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Aug 14 2010 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? MichaelA   Sat Aug 14 2010 03:07 PM
. * * Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong? berrywr   Sat Aug 14 2010 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Wait and Watch or Vice Versa MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 14 2010 12:00 PM
. * * Re: TD5 Remnants - Redevelopment in GOM? WesnWylie   Fri Aug 13 2010 11:37 PM
. * * TD5 Remnants - Redevelopment in GOM? berrywr   Fri Aug 13 2010 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Wait and Watch or Vice Versa MichaelA   Fri Aug 13 2010 08:13 PM

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