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Recon is heading into #92L and it is possible Advisories begin later this morning for NE FL to the SE US coast.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 296 (Idalia) , Major: 296 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 296 (Idalia) Major: 296 (Idalia)
22.3N 102.0W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
W at 24 mph
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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: The Outgoing West African Double Header
      Wed Aug 18 2010 02:51 PM

The first wave drifted off to the west northwest and lost its convection, however the lower-level swirl is still evident near 20N 30W at 18/12Z. The second wave is in the process of leaving the west African coast at about 15N this morning and it already has started to lose some of its convection. Note that this wave was a bit stronger than the first - will be interesting to see if it survives the next 24 hours or so.

Basin conditions still have not reached their forecasted levels - and it was these expectations that prompted some of the early season high activity forecasts. Subsidence (sinking air) is still evident in the tropics - a sure sign of atmospheric stability under high pressure ridges. The expectation was for lower pressure in the development zones this summer, but it hasn't happened yet.

SST anomalies were anticipated to be high with steam-bath conditions in the tropical Atlantic, but in fact they remain a little more below average than they were a couple of months ago. At 15N, the current SST is about 27C and the area from 10N to 20N westward to 30W is running about 0.5C below normal.

The second wave leaving the coast still has some residual SAL to contend with. Its not just windshear and TUTT lows that are limiting development so far this season. The SAL itself has been uncommonly active this month.

Until now at least, these adverse conditions have lead to the demise of waves exiting the west African coast.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Aug 18 2010 08:21 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* The Upcoming West African Double Header Ed DunhamAdministrator Wed Aug 18 2010 02:51 PM
. * * Re: The Upcoming West African Double Header berrywr   Thu Aug 19 2010 06:39 AM
. * * Tropical Weather Analysis - 19/06Z berrywr   Thu Aug 19 2010 07:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Weather Analysis - 19/06Z MichaelA   Thu Aug 19 2010 12:52 PM
. * * 20N 60W Robert   Thu Aug 19 2010 01:13 PM
. * * Re: 20N 60W Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 19 2010 02:12 PM
. * * Re: 20N 60W Robert   Thu Aug 19 2010 02:32 PM
. * * Re: 20N 60W MichaelA   Thu Aug 19 2010 07:23 PM
. * * Re: 20N 60W Robert   Thu Aug 19 2010 04:03 PM
. * * la nina el nino Robert   Thu Aug 19 2010 02:04 PM
. * * Re: The Upcoming West African Double Header Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 16 2010 02:50 AM
. * * Re: The Upcoming West African Double Header Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 16 2010 04:32 PM
. * * Re: The Outgoing West African Double Header Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 18 2010 02:51 PM
. * * Re: The Outgoing West African Double Header Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 18 2010 08:28 PM
. * * Re: The Outgoing West African Double Header Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 22 2010 03:05 AM
. * * Re: The Outgoing West African Wave Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 20 2010 02:54 AM
. * * Re: The Outgoing West African Double Header mwillis   Wed Aug 18 2010 11:23 PM
. * * Re: The Outgoing West African Double Header weathernet   Wed Aug 18 2010 11:54 PM
. * * Re: The Outgoing West African Double Header ChrisS   Wed Aug 18 2010 05:33 PM
. * * Re: The Upcoming West African Double Header LoisCane   Mon Aug 16 2010 12:28 AM
. * * Re: The Upcoming West African Double Header weathernet   Mon Aug 16 2010 12:59 AM

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