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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 272 (Idalia) , Major: 272 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 272 (Idalia) Major: 272 (Idalia)
 


General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

berrywr
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Tropical Weather Analysis - 19/06Z
      Thu Aug 19 2010 07:57 AM

Good morning! Before I get started it needs to be said in regards to the Tropical Wave near 10.5N and 27.0W there are no models that have the capability to accurately forecast Tropical systems beyond 5 days or 120 hours. We won't be able to put any level of faith in the models until we're beyond the next 5 days and compare the model data with current upper level data.

Tonight there several upper level lows and a strong TUTT that currently resides from 50.0N 46W to an upper level low near 30.0N 55.0W extending westward to another upper level low at 21.0N 87.0W near Yucatan have been semi-permanent for the better part of this season.
There is considerable shear between the upper low near 30.0N 55.0W and the Azore upper ridge to its east.

Further west; the Gulf of Mexico is closed for business as shear across the entire area is near 30 knots extending ENE south of the upper ridge axis which extends from the Mid-Continental ridge over Texas to 34.0N 50.0W with a small closed upper high along the axis off the coast of DELMARVA..

There are few windows that support sustaining a tropical system in the here and now and the evolution of the TUTT across the Central Atlantic will be a key player in the evolution of this wave in the short and mid term.

That all said, we're paying attention to this well advertised tropical wave!

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Edited by berrywr (Thu Aug 19 2010 08:06 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* The Upcoming West African Double Header Ed DunhamAdministrator Thu Aug 19 2010 07:57 AM
. * * Re: The Upcoming West African Double Header berrywr   Thu Aug 19 2010 06:39 AM
. * * Tropical Weather Analysis - 19/06Z berrywr   Thu Aug 19 2010 07:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Weather Analysis - 19/06Z MichaelA   Thu Aug 19 2010 12:52 PM
. * * 20N 60W Robert   Thu Aug 19 2010 01:13 PM
. * * Re: 20N 60W Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 19 2010 02:12 PM
. * * Re: 20N 60W Robert   Thu Aug 19 2010 02:32 PM
. * * Re: 20N 60W MichaelA   Thu Aug 19 2010 07:23 PM
. * * Re: 20N 60W Robert   Thu Aug 19 2010 04:03 PM
. * * la nina el nino Robert   Thu Aug 19 2010 02:04 PM
. * * Re: The Upcoming West African Double Header Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 16 2010 02:50 AM
. * * Re: The Upcoming West African Double Header Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 16 2010 04:32 PM
. * * Re: The Outgoing West African Double Header Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 18 2010 02:51 PM
. * * Re: The Outgoing West African Double Header Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 18 2010 08:28 PM
. * * Re: The Outgoing West African Double Header Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 22 2010 03:05 AM
. * * Re: The Outgoing West African Wave Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 20 2010 02:54 AM
. * * Re: The Outgoing West African Double Header mwillis   Wed Aug 18 2010 11:23 PM
. * * Re: The Outgoing West African Double Header weathernet   Wed Aug 18 2010 11:54 PM
. * * Re: The Outgoing West African Double Header ChrisS   Wed Aug 18 2010 05:33 PM
. * * Re: The Upcoming West African Double Header LoisCane   Mon Aug 16 2010 12:28 AM
. * * Re: The Upcoming West African Double Header weathernet   Mon Aug 16 2010 12:59 AM

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