MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Recurve is the Name of the Game
Sat Aug 21 2010 05:26 PM
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1:00PM EDT Update - Thursday, 26 August 2010
97L is now being tracked, this is the wave east of Earl, and has a chance to form tomorrow or over the weekend. Odds favor this recurving as well, but has even less confidence than Earl.
7:00AM EDT Update - Thursday, 26 August 2010
There are two active storms in the Atlantic this morning. Hurricane Danielle, which is recurving rather abruptly, and looks like it will miss Bermuda comfortably to the east. Danielle has another window to strengthen tomorrow into Saturday, where it still may reach major status.
Tropical Storm Earl is moving generally west northwest right now. Odds are increasing that it will recurve and miss the Caribbean islands as the weakness between 55 and 60 degrees west looks to be maintained throughout the week. This recurving is quit normal for cape Verde systems. Bermuda may have to watch Earl later, but odds favor it being missed as well. If anything changes we'll note it.
(11 AM Mini Earl Update): The hurricane center mentions a point about Earl (and Danielle) at the 11AM discussion, basically saying if Danielle recurves faster and or more abruptly than forecast, it could give a window for the ridge to reform near earl, keeping it a bit further west than the current track, which would possibly bring the Eastern Caribbean back in play. Odds are against it, but if Earl's forecasted path were to change, that would be one of the reasons why, and something to watch for.
Beyond that, the pattern probably holds into the first part of September, so odds are the wave emerging from the African coast will recurve as well around the same place. But that far out becomes a bit more uncertain. It is possible we'll have three storms to track by the end of the weekend.
The good news is that the recurve pattern looks to last into perhaps the first week of September. But unfortunately after that the pattern may start to change. However, it's still important to be vigilant for anything that develops closer to land is more of a risk, but there is nothing imminent.
The only affect along the US from these systems will be slightly higher surf, which could cause some swells, large waves and rip currents in some areas.
The area in the Gulf missed its chance to develop and will just bring some rain to Texas.
{{StormLinks|Danielle|06|6|2010|1|Danielle}}
{{StormLinks|Earl|07|7|2010|2|Earl}}
* Skeetobite hasn't updated 97L yet, actual system is off the coast of Africa *
{{StormLinks|97L|97|8|2010|3|97L}}
5:00PM EDT Update - Wednesday, 25 August 2010
Tropical Storm Earl has formed in the East Atlantic, it is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. Odds currently favor Earl going out to sea, but the odds are not as solid as they were for Danielle. Those in the Eastern Caribbean islands will want to watch for any changes in the forecast track.
8:00AM EDT Update - Wednesday, 25 August 2010
96L appears to be reaching tropical Depression status this morning on visible satellite imagery and likely will begin advisories on Tropical Depression 7 at 11 AM EDT. Most likely forecast track for it takes it mostly west, then curves north and out to sea well before the Caribbean.
6:30AM EDT Update - Wednesday, 25 August 2010
Hurricane Danielle has maintained itself well overnight and has a chance to strengthen a bit more after a day or two when the upper level low currently negatively affecting Danielle moves more southwesterly.
Track wise, odds still favor no direct impact to land, however Bermuda is in the cone and should watch, but what's most likely is that it should pass enough to the east to avoid the worst of it. Still those in Bermuda should watch closely for any changes.
Model runs that showed a more westerly move last night have moved back to the east, and some much further to the east.
The area behind Danielle (96L) has not yet developed, but still has a chance today to become a depression, and odds still favor it staying away from land areas.
The gulf system has a small chance to develop, but isn't very likely. If it were it wouldn't do it until Friday into the weekend and it won't have much time to strengthen if it does.
8:45PM EDT Update - Tuesday, 24 August 2010
Danielle has weakened a bit today, but is on it's way back to a hurricane tonight and likely will recover.
Odds still favor no US land impact, but Bermuda is in the western forecast cone, and may need to watch the system. Longer range forecasts are a bitty iffy, but still the highest odds keep it away from land.
The wave behind Danielle (96L) Did not develop so far today, but may later tonight or tomorrow. Odds still favor this system staying out to sea as well.
The area in the Gulf has a 10% chance to develop, but is not being tracked as an investigation currently. Odds are that it will not, but if it were it would be Friday into the weekend.
You can find long range discussions/guesses on the Gulf System Here, and the same for Danielle here (including models).
7AM EDT Update - Tuesday, 24 August 2010
Hurricane Danielle has strengthened to a category 2 hurricane overnight, but has lost the eye feature that was visible last night. It has had a bit of dry air intrusion, which may keep the storm from reaching major today. It still has a chance to later, but first Danielle may actually weaken a bit, and may never make it back up that high The forecast track (and odds) still takes it out to sea regardless of strength.
Danielle is forecast to slow forward motion and begin moving more northward. Bermuda is barely in the cone, but chances of direct effects of the system are low for there.
The wave behind Danielle, 96L, may form into a depression later today. This system has a pretty good shot at developing with a 90% chance (as of 80%). It likely won't get as strong as Danielle, but it has a chance to develop none the less. Still, the most likely outcome, currently, for track on this system keeps it out to sea, following in the wake of Danielle.
Those in the Cape Verde Islands themselves, may see some effects from 96L.
Beyond that, another wave may exit the coast of Africa, and that one has a chance to stay further south and west. Those may be worth watching later this week into next week. And there is also possibility something in the Gulf could form closer to home late this weekend into next week, but there is nothing solid there.
The tropics will likely be busy over the next few weeks, so be prepared.
5PM EDT Update - Monday, 23 August 2010
Danielle has become a hurricane, the second of 2010 for the Atlantic. The forecast track keeps it far out to sea from the Caribbean and United States. It is likely to undergo rapid intensification and become this year's first major hurricane. Which, thankfully, will stay far away from land.
Behind Danielle is another tropical wave being watched that could form over the next few days, this system will likely follow Danielle out to sea.
In short, the tropics are starting to heat up again, but there is nothing approaching any land.
2PM EDT Update - Monday, 23 August 2010
Danielle appears on it's way to becoming a hurricane by tonight or tomorrow, but odds are it will stay out to sea. Danielle is likely to become this year's first major hurricane, but thankfully well away from any land areas.
Behind Danielle is another system, 96L which also has the potential to develop this week, and may do so tomorrow or Wednesday. It has a 40% chance to develop right now, and odds are this too will stay out to sea. It likely won't become as powerful as Danielle, and Danielle may keep it from doing so.
Beyond 96L, another wave may come off Africa and form, and that one could be something to keep a close eye on.
11AM EDT Update - Monday, 23 August 2010
Although still experiencing some easterly shear, Tropical Storm Danielle continues to intensify at a steady rate and is again expected to attain hurricane strength by late tonight or early Tuesday as the shear will be relaxing this evening. After a westward trend during the night, Danielle is now moving to the west northwest and a more northwesterly track is likely tonight as the cyclone approaches a weakness in the ridge near 45W. After turning to the northwest, NHC believes that a western Atlantic ridge will force Danielle on a track more to the north northwest - which seems like a reasonable scenario, however, since the westward motion last night was not anticipated, folks in the northern Leeward Islands should continue to monitor Danielle's progress for any unexpected changes.
ED
11AM EDT Update - Sunday, 22 August 2010
The organization phase of TD6 has stalled for the moment as the system has encountered strong northeasterly shear that has displaced most of the convection to the southwest of the exposed center. Movement for the past few hours has been almost due north at about 8 knots, however, a more west northwest motion should resume later today as the system moves away from strong tropical east to northeast winds.
Both the intensification outlook and the eventual track of TD6 will require some adjustment because of the disruption and delay of the current system development and the slowdown in forward motion toward the west - both current motion and forecasted movement. A slower and less aggressive intensification process should eventually bring TD6 to hurricane strength on Wednesday. The development of a mid-Atlantic trough is now anticipated to have less influence on the future track - and that track is a little less obvious than it was yesterday.
Other systems that may influence the wind flow patterns in the Atlantic include a rather intense Upper Level Low over the southern Bahamas, another ULL near 26N 43W and a new active and slowly developing tropical wave near 12N 22W at 22/15Z. Just as rapidly as conditions changed from yesterday to today, they can change again from today to tomorrow or the next day, so stay tuned.
ED
Original Post
Tropical Depression six has formed in the Eastern Atlantic, and is forecast to become a hurricane sometime Monday. The good news is that it will stay far away from any land areas.
The system has a good chance to become the first major hurricane of the season, and may generate some minor swells along the east coast, but that will be the extent of the impact.
Outside of this, there likely won't be much else to track until mid-week.
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