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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 22 (Milton) , Major: 22 (Milton) Florida - Any: 22 (Milton) Major: 22 (Milton)
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


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Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Tropical Depression Six Forms in East Atlantic
      Sat Aug 21 2010 08:54 PM

Taking a close look at the model data 18z tonight looks as though it is really going to be about timing when it comes to when TD6 soon to be Danielle makes the turn northward. Still plenty of time to watch this system but some of the models Bam's and HWRF are bending it back westward late in the period 96-120 hours. Looks as though the trough/low developing on the east coast of of the U.S 48-72 hours will lift northeast with high pressure building back in linking back up with the Azores high. GFS/GFDL still taking this northwestward but slower after 120-144 hours as high builds back in to the north. The HWRF has a weaker system, maybe why its not being pulled more poleward? 18z NOGAPS also on the left side of guidance envelope. Of coarse its much to soon to say its going to be a for sure fish spinner or U.S threat, will know more for sure over the up coming week as things begin to evolve.

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 21 2010 10:33 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Danielle Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator Sat Aug 21 2010 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Six Forms in East Atlantic Joeyfl   Sat Aug 21 2010 08:54 PM
. * * TD6 Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Aug 21 2010 05:36 PM
. * * Tropical Storm Danielle Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 22 2010 05:32 PM
. * * Danielle Forecast Lounge WesnWylie   Fri Aug 20 2010 08:09 AM
. * * Re: Danielle Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 25 2010 06:36 AM
. * * Re: Danielle Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 24 2010 08:23 PM

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