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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist

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Posts: 576

Re: Tropical Depression Six Forms in East Atlantic
Sun Aug 22 2010 11:18 AM

Perhaps temporary, but the low and mid level centers appear to be decoupling in recent higher resolution visible imagery.

Currently Td6 is in a moderate ENE shearing, which more than likely is the culprit for looking rather exposed during the morning hours. In about 24 to 36 hours ...assuming this system lasts that long, the depression will be moving away from this region of shear; should that be the case it will find its self in an ever improving arena for the next 2 -3 days, which would offer solid opportunity for unimpeded development.

Track guidance has shifted left to varying degrees among the global numerical models over the past 24 hours. The reason for this is understandable to me. The North Atlantic Oscillation phase is currently rising and forecast to continue to do so right out through the end of the middle and extended range (D6-10). The evolution of that would argue for strengthening subtropical ridging, particularly in the western 1/3 to 1/2 of the Atlantic Basin, not troughs digging into 50W enough to induce a quick polarward motion. The ECMWF solution from 00z last night did in fact back off on that idea from 12z yesterday.

All told this would tend to dictate a left adjustment in track guidance in future runs, barring the pattern just doesn't evolve as currently modeled to do so. Obviously, the corrective assumptions are predicated on the +NAO related substantive subtropical ridging behaving accordingly...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Aug 22 2010 12:40 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Recurve is the Name of the Game	MikeC	Sun Aug 22 2010 11:18 AM
Danielle RECON Vortex Message	danielw	Fri Aug 27 2010 02:19 PM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	danielw	Fri Aug 27 2010 01:58 PM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	berrywr	Fri Aug 27 2010 11:02 AM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	LoisCane	Fri Aug 27 2010 07:39 AM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	Beach	Fri Aug 27 2010 07:22 AM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	WeatherNut	Fri Aug 27 2010 02:24 AM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	StrmTrckrMiami	Thu Aug 26 2010 10:19 PM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	Ed Dunham	Thu Aug 26 2010 10:03 PM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	LoisCane	Thu Aug 26 2010 09:33 PM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	StrmTrckrMiami	Thu Aug 26 2010 09:14 PM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	Ed Dunham	Thu Aug 26 2010 07:17 PM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	LoisCane	Thu Aug 26 2010 07:09 PM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	Clark	Thu Aug 26 2010 06:14 PM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	berrywr	Thu Aug 26 2010 05:53 PM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	WeatherNut	Thu Aug 26 2010 05:08 PM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	doug	Thu Aug 26 2010 04:32 PM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	Ed Dunham	Thu Aug 26 2010 02:07 PM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	scottsvb	Thu Aug 26 2010 01:30 PM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	MikeC	Thu Aug 26 2010 01:29 PM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	Ed in Va	Thu Aug 26 2010 01:19 PM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	MichaelA	Thu Aug 26 2010 12:48 PM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	LoisCane	Thu Aug 26 2010 11:58 AM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	MikeC	Thu Aug 26 2010 11:15 AM
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game	Ed Dunham	Thu Aug 26 2010 09:54 AM
Re: Hurricane Danielle	RevUp	Wed Aug 25 2010 10:28 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	MikeC	Tue Aug 24 2010 10:40 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	MikeC	Tue Aug 24 2010 10:24 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	Ed in Va	Tue Aug 24 2010 10:19 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	LoisCane	Tue Aug 24 2010 10:10 PM
Re: Hurricane Danielle	Storm Hunter	Tue Aug 24 2010 09:16 PM
Re: Hurricane Danielle	berrywr	Tue Aug 24 2010 08:50 PM
Re: Hurricane Danielle	scottsvb	Tue Aug 24 2010 08:15 PM
Re: Hurricane Danielle	MichaelA	Tue Aug 24 2010 05:45 PM
Re: Hurricane Danielle	LoisCane	Tue Aug 24 2010 04:32 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	WeatherNut	Tue Aug 24 2010 04:07 PM
Re: Hurricane Danielle	scottsvb	Tue Aug 24 2010 03:26 PM
Re: Hurricane Danielle	MichaelA	Tue Aug 24 2010 03:10 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	MichaelA	Tue Aug 24 2010 03:07 PM
Re: Hurricane Danielle	scottsvb	Tue Aug 24 2010 02:50 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	doug	Tue Aug 24 2010 02:27 PM
Hurricane Danielle	danielw	Tue Aug 24 2010 12:24 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	MichaelA	Tue Aug 24 2010 12:16 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	scottsvb	Tue Aug 24 2010 11:12 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	typhoon_tip	Tue Aug 24 2010 10:52 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	Evan Johnson	Tue Aug 24 2010 10:43 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	Ed in Va	Tue Aug 24 2010 10:04 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	doug	Tue Aug 24 2010 09:50 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	berrywr	Tue Aug 24 2010 06:55 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	WeatherNut	Mon Aug 23 2010 11:32 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	Ed in Va	Mon Aug 23 2010 10:54 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	Ed Dunham	Mon Aug 23 2010 10:06 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	typhoon_tip	Mon Aug 23 2010 10:03 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	WeatherNut	Mon Aug 23 2010 09:56 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	typhoon_tip	Mon Aug 23 2010 09:20 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	Ed Dunham	Mon Aug 23 2010 04:13 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	MikeC	Mon Aug 23 2010 11:35 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	danielw	Mon Aug 23 2010 12:00 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle	typhoon_tip	Sun Aug 22 2010 11:14 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Forms in East Atlantic	typhoon_tip	Sun Aug 22 2010 09:44 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Forms in East Atlantic	MichaelA	Sun Aug 22 2010 08:09 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Forms in East Atlantic	typhoon_tip	Sun Aug 22 2010 05:50 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Forms in East Atlantic	MichaelA	Sun Aug 22 2010 03:44 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Forms in East Atlantic	typhoon_tip	Sun Aug 22 2010 12:34 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Forms in East Atlantic	weathernet	Sun Aug 22 2010 12:14 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Forms in East Atlantic	WeatherNut	Sun Aug 22 2010 12:09 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Six Forms in East Atlantic	typhoon_tip	Sun Aug 22 2010 11:18 AM

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