Perhaps temporary, but the low and mid level centers appear to be decoupling in recent higher resolution visible imagery.
Currently Td6 is in a moderate ENE shearing, which more than likely is the culprit for looking rather exposed during the morning hours. In about 24 to 36 hours ...assuming this system lasts that long, the depression will be moving away from this region of shear; should that be the case it will find its self in an ever improving arena for the next 2 -3 days, which would offer solid opportunity for unimpeded development.
Track guidance has shifted left to varying degrees among the global numerical models over the past 24 hours. The reason for this is understandable to me. The North Atlantic Oscillation phase is currently rising and forecast to continue to do so right out through the end of the middle and extended range (D6-10). The evolution of that would argue for strengthening subtropical ridging, particularly in the western 1/3 to 1/2 of the Atlantic Basin, not troughs digging into 50W enough to induce a quick polarward motion. The ECMWF solution from 00z last night did in fact back off on that idea from 12z yesterday.
All told this would tend to dictate a left adjustment in track guidance in future runs, barring the pattern just doesn't evolve as currently modeled to do so. Obviously, the corrective assumptions are predicated on the +NAO related substantive subtropical ridging behaving accordingly...
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Re: Tropical Depression Six Forms in East Atlantic
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