Quote: It also looks to me like a westward movement. If it does miss this weakness, will it continue westward. with it being a stronger system will it be steered more by the 200-300mb layer flow? Looking at the latest graphics from CIMSS, thats what it looks like
Track guidance beyond 72 hours is very difficult. There's just no way to know... For many runs, the numerical guidance had this weakness missing, now for a the last 18 hours (or 3 cycles worth) they have unanimously trended toward it turning smartly N and moving unimpeded right up the 50th parallel or so. The 18z runs of a few of these show an interesting bend back W around 84 hours or so, which "could" be an early indicator for troubling times ahead in the modeling.
As I was mentioning to Ed, if it misses the weakness it seems the most likely result would be a stall, or at least a very significant slowing with the potential for some meandering. The synoptic scale ridging along and off the East Coast could very well "trap" it between Bermuda and the outer Bahamas. But that is entirely supposition.
In the meantime, recent microwave passes shows a very discernible eye wall, and clear eye has developed, despite the fact that this does not show up very well in the other channels.
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