You've made some good observations. I've taken a long look at the upper air and the ULL at about 27N is not particularly strong so it may end up not having as much of an immediate influence on Danielle's track as advertised. At 21Z NHC had the center at 15.4N and at 24/00Z they had it at 15.5N. Since 20Z I've pegged it between 15.2 and 15.3N - close enough since we are dealing with IR satellite - but the point of interest is about 6 hours of westerly movement in a pattern similar to yesterday evening. I said yesterday evening that the folks in the northern Leewards should monitor the progress of this system - and I still do since this is now the second episode of a bend to the left - and six hours is a rather lengthy 'wobble'.
The Islands are still probably okay given the strong tug to the northwest at least by 55-57W - but I wouldn't ignore the system until that northwest movement shows up (and stays that way).
And yes, I've looked at that steering from SSEC, but I think thats for the 700-850mb layer. ED
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Re: Tropical Depression Six Upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle
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