As noted on the 09Z NHC Discussion for Tropical Storm Earl: "BASED ON THESE DATA...CONTINUITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOSE TO THE TRMM FIX. IF THE CIRCULATION CENTER DOES REFORM FARTHER SOUTH...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTH...OR TO THE LEFT OF THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE."
At 26/12Z, NHC adjusted the center position south to 14.8N 35.4W which yields a west rather than a west northwest motion. I'd anticipate that the 15Z package will show a minor track adjustment to the left. Centerpoint positions are difficult to locate on formative systems at night but its likely that the adjusted 12Z position was used in the model run currently underway. Because some of the models use continuity as one of their parameters, its going to take an additional run or two for an adjusted track to emerge. With a persistent trough expected to maintain itself off the east coast, the overall recurve pattern still seems like the best solution at this time. ED
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Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game
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