Earl is expected to be north and west of 20/60 in 120 hours. Initially models have recurvature tracing Danielle's track however not as abrupt. Earl is likely to make a much closer approach to the United States and may find itself stalled due to a number of features in play in one week. We all know model resolution at 168 hours is iffy at best. It will be 3 more days before we can really have a grasp how close Earl is going to approach; it will however be much, much closer this time around than Danielle. There is one fly in the ointment and that is 97L and maybe that impressive wave that's lighting up Africa as we speak.
Thanks to Ed and the link, I took a look at the SAL satellite imagery. A day ago the boys at NHC couldn't figure out why Danielle weakened to a tropical storm despite low shear values; it crossed through a tongue of the SAL.
The SAL has been slowly modifying while enveloped around Earl and his satellite presentation is improving and winds were raised slightly at 5pm.
Realistically, we're not going to know anything concrete for a few days and where all the major players will be.
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