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Earl has really taken a beating from the Saharan Air Layer - and it still is. At 26/16Z the NRL PREDICT Project Team had Earl at 15.3N 37.2W moving to the west and at 17Z the position was 15.3N 37.5W with a central pressure of 1010MB, i..e., at the moment, from their perspective, Earl is on life support. Until you have a halfway stable centerpoint, early upgrades can create track variability problems - and we are seeing some of that. In the past few hours the overall structure is showing signs of improvement.
ED

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Just a quick heads-up, Ed: The intensities listed for each of the various "PGI" invest areas on the NRL PREDICT page are just placeholder values. They don't have any meaning whatsoever. The only information NRL gets from the PREDICT group for those invest areas is position. Since their system is set up to include an intensity designation, they just use 15 kt/1010 mb as a 'dummy' placeholder value. (Note the same that you see for Earl holds true for Danielle/31L, 97L/36L, and 37L in the Gulf.)

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