MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Earl Expected To Strengthen and Head Toward the Northern Leewards
Fri Aug 27 2010 07:34 AM
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Update - 11PM EDT Saturday, 28 August 2010
Hurricane Danielle now located over 350 miles east of Bermuda and accelerating to the northeast at 20mph with sustained winds of 90 knots. Danielle should continue to head northeast and slowly weaken - becoming extratropical in about three days.
At 11PM EDT Tropical Storm Earl was located just over 500 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands with sustained winds of 55 knots and movement to the west at 17 knots. The following Watches/Warnings are now in effect:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...AND SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS
Hurricane conditions are expected over the northern Leeward Islands by Sunday night and these conditions might spread to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday and Monday night. Storm surge of one to three feet is possible in the northernmost Leeward Islands since Earl is expected to strengthen to a hurricane with 85 to 90 knot sustained winds. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts in the mountains up to 8 inches. Residents in the northern Leewards and the Virgin Islands should prepare for high winds and heavy rain squalls. Residents in Puerto Rico should closely monitor the progress of Earl and be prepared to initiate hurricane plans should the track of Earl move more to the south.
NHC forecasts Earl to pass northeast of Puerto Rico on Tuesday as a Category III major hurricane moving off to the northwest.
Invest 97L is still expected to develop - but it hasn't changed much today. Convection has become a little better organized and the circulation envelope is still quite large. The system is moving rapidly westward at about 22 knots. At 29/00Z the system was located southwest of the Cape Verde Islands at 12.7N 31.9W. Models present various solutions for this system (or none at all like the 18Z GFS), but it seems likely to develop - and we'll have plenty of time to monitor it during the upcoming week.
ED
5PM EDT Saturday, 28 August 2010 update
Tropical Storm Earl seems to be holding its own, even at brisk pace of 23MPH, it is still expected to become a hurricane over the next few days as it nears the Leeward islands in the Caribbean, some of which have tropical storm watches up. Odds still are it will recurve before the east coast of the US, but it could get close enough to cause very rough surf along the east coast this coming week. Those in the cone will want to watch the system very closely.
Those in the Leeward islands and in the cone of uncertaintly will want to watch this system closely,
Daniellie has weakened a bit since yesterday, but continues to move out to sea.
97L has not formed into a depression yet, but probably will so before the weekend is up. This system has the potential to track further west than any of the other systems from the Cape Verde so far, and will be worth watching at the end of next week and beyond. If this were to impact any ares, it would be around sept 5/6.
{{StormCarib}}
St. Maarten Webcam
{{StormLinks|Danielle|06|6|2010|1|Danielle}}
{{StormLinks|Earl|07|7|2010|2|Earl}}
{{StormLinks|97L|97|8|2010|3|97L}}
5PM EDT Friday, 27 August 2010 update
Tropical Storm watches have been issued for the French Saint Maartin and st. Barthelemy. The Northern Leeward islands are in the Cone for Earl. Odds still favor Earl turning out to sea before (but very close to) the leewards. After that the most likely outcome will for Earl to stay out to sea, but it will be worth watching in case anything changes. Odds are about 87% for the system NOT reaching the US.
Tropical Storm watches also have been issued for Bermuda, as there is a chance they may see Tropical Storm force winds as Danielle moves by, but it will not be close enough for Hurricane force winds.
Note Earl is still most likely to recurve after nearing the Leewards, but 97L which may be Fiona by the end of the weekend, has much less chance to recurve, and may be worth watching by labor day weekend.
Original update
With three systems, including Danielle, which has reached major hurricane status, and jumped up to Category 4 from there, being the first major storm of the season, to Earl, being held back by the Saharan air level, along with a wave east of there (97)L that probably will form tonight or over the weekend, we find none of them likely to affect the US mainland, or even the Caribbean, but there is enough of a chance for those in the Leeward islands to keep close watch.
These systems will cause a fairly good amount of swell along the eastern US Coastline which could bring some rip currents and rough surf to many areas.
Danielle, strong as it is now, is quickly moving toward recurve and out to sea, missing even Bermuda, odds currently are around 98 out of a 100 it does not affect land. Danielle has about another day or two to slowly strengthen even more before encountering more hostile atmospheric conditions that would likely stop it from strengthening or weaken it.
Earl has been held back by atmospheric conditions, but the conditions are improving, and Earl has a good shot at slowly strengthening over the next few days. It has a chance to reach major hurricane by the time it is northeast of the islands. Odds currently are about 51% it will not affect the eastern Caribbean islands directly, and about 85% for not reaching the US. Those in the Northern Leeward islands of the Caribbean will want to watch closely for any changes.
97L has a fairly good shot to develop 60-70% either tonight or tomorrow, following in the steps of the other two systems, it is likely to get further west than the others, but odds still favor this one going out to sea as well. 55% for NOT getting the East Caribbean, 60% for not getting toward the US.. Of the three systems, though, this is the one most prime for change, but it requires the more complex situation to occur, so therefore a bit less likely that it won't recurve before land.
Beyond that there are more waves over Africa, and nothing imminent closer to home.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 29 2010 12:23 AM)
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