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typhoon_tip
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Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week
      Fri Aug 27 2010 11:12 PM

Let us not be fooled by Earl's ragged appearance in satellite late this day. This system has a massive circulation field comparative to typical for a system of this intensity, and therefor has a lot of integrate energy already. This TC has the potential to become quite large and powerful.

Looking at the CIMSS SAL analysis the contamination is beginning to homogenize into the surrounding medium. If it were just dry air, such as a subsidence ring (not a-typical to mote at TC with one) then this would have been less of an issue. That said, Earl appears to be heading into a region with very good to excellent U/A outflow potential, this should allow for unimpeded growth given to the anomalously warm SSTs. Large systems tend to evolve more slowly, so it will be interesting to observe how Earl taps into these factors over the next 48 hours. By Monday we should have a large and intense hurricane.

I don't want to put a lot of stock in these D5+ forecasts. Too much of that depends on the exact handling of the eastern North American and western Atlantic Basin synoptic evolution, much of which has been stochastic in the models with regard to all important details that could make for big positional changes. I do want to add, however, that sampling the area N of 25N around 50-60W will be very important for Earl's track beyond D3..4. The reason is because TC of Danielle's ilk will leave a huge influx of latent heat into the surrounding medium, and that will affect the post ridge strength at mid levels ... ultimately playing into the steering fields farther south when the time comes. This "might" be causal in some of this apparent left shifting in recent runs. I would be leary, however, of the BAMS and BAMM as they are limited layer models, where as the BAMD has more levels.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Aug 27 2010 11:12 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Earl Expected To Strengthen and Head Toward the Northern Leewards MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 27 2010 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Earl Expected To Strengthen and Head Toward the Northern Leewards Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 03:03 AM
. * * Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week weathernet   Sun Aug 29 2010 01:38 AM
. * * Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week bw   Sun Aug 29 2010 12:50 AM
. * * Re: Earl danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Earl danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 12:05 AM
. * * Earl Beach   Sat Aug 28 2010 07:04 PM
. * * Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week MichaelA   Sat Aug 28 2010 05:36 PM
. * * Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week Evan Johnson   Sat Aug 28 2010 04:30 PM
. * * Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week typhoon_tip   Sat Aug 28 2010 04:41 AM
. * * Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week scottsvb   Sat Aug 28 2010 02:49 AM
. * * Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week WeatherNut   Sat Aug 28 2010 02:35 AM
. * * Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 27 2010 11:39 PM
. * * Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week typhoon_tip   Fri Aug 27 2010 11:12 PM
. * * Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week weathernet   Fri Aug 27 2010 09:39 PM
. * * Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 27 2010 08:45 PM
. * * Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week LoisCane   Fri Aug 27 2010 06:30 PM
. * * Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week scottsvb   Fri Aug 27 2010 06:21 PM
. * * Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 27 2010 05:57 PM
. * * Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week Doombot!   Fri Aug 27 2010 05:27 PM
. * * Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 27 2010 02:57 PM

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