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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist

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Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week
Fri Aug 27 2010 07:12 PM

Let us not be fooled by Earl's ragged appearance in satellite late this day. This system has a massive circulation field comparative to typical for a system of this intensity, and therefor has a lot of integrate energy already. This TC has the potential to become quite large and powerful.

Looking at the CIMSS SAL analysis the contamination is beginning to homogenize into the surrounding medium. If it were just dry air, such as a subsidence ring (not a-typical to mote at TC with one) then this would have been less of an issue. That said, Earl appears to be heading into a region with very good to excellent U/A outflow potential, this should allow for unimpeded growth given to the anomalously warm SSTs. Large systems tend to evolve more slowly, so it will be interesting to observe how Earl taps into these factors over the next 48 hours. By Monday we should have a large and intense hurricane.

I don't want to put a lot of stock in these D5+ forecasts. Too much of that depends on the exact handling of the eastern North American and western Atlantic Basin synoptic evolution, much of which has been stochastic in the models with regard to all important details that could make for big positional changes. I do want to add, however, that sampling the area N of 25N around 50-60W will be very important for Earl's track beyond D3..4. The reason is because TC of Danielle's ilk will leave a huge influx of latent heat into the surrounding medium, and that will affect the post ridge strength at mid levels ... ultimately playing into the steering fields farther south when the time comes. This "might" be causal in some of this apparent left shifting in recent runs. I would be leary, however, of the BAMS and BAMM as they are limited layer models, where as the BAMD has more levels.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Aug 27 2010 07:12 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Earl Expected To Strengthen and Head Toward the Northern Leewards	MikeC	Fri Aug 27 2010 07:12 PM
Re: Earl Expected To Strengthen and Head Toward the Northern Leewards	Ed Dunham	Sat Aug 28 2010 11:03 PM
Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week	weathernet	Sat Aug 28 2010 09:38 PM
Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week	bw	Sat Aug 28 2010 08:50 PM
Re: Earl	danielw	Sat Aug 28 2010 08:40 PM
Re: Earl	danielw	Sat Aug 28 2010 08:05 PM
Earl	Beach	Sat Aug 28 2010 03:04 PM
Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week	MichaelA	Sat Aug 28 2010 01:36 PM
Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week	Evan Johnson	Sat Aug 28 2010 12:30 PM
Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week	typhoon_tip	Sat Aug 28 2010 12:41 AM
Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week	scottsvb	Fri Aug 27 2010 10:49 PM
Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week	WeatherNut	Fri Aug 27 2010 10:35 PM
Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week	Ed Dunham	Fri Aug 27 2010 07:39 PM
Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 27 2010 07:12 PM
Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week	weathernet	Fri Aug 27 2010 05:39 PM
Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week	MikeC	Fri Aug 27 2010 04:45 PM
Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week	LoisCane	Fri Aug 27 2010 02:30 PM
Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week	scottsvb	Fri Aug 27 2010 02:21 PM
Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week	MikeC	Fri Aug 27 2010 01:57 PM
Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week	Doombot!	Fri Aug 27 2010 01:27 PM
Re: East Coast Wave Makers This Week	MikeC	Fri Aug 27 2010 10:57 AM

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