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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 274 (Idalia) , Major: 274 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 274 (Idalia) Major: 274 (Idalia)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Earl
      Sun Aug 29 2010 05:14 PM

Earl:

85GHz showing some pretty good banding in the storm. SSMIS overpass shows the west and north portions of the storm, while TMI shows SE parts. I would not be surprised between the pressure drop and the 85GHz if we had a cat 2 before long.

Looking at the long range model run from GFS, we need to watch along the eastern seaboard from North Carolina through Canada. The storm is staying offshore in the US in all models right now, but erosion will be a major threat even if the track doesn't move further west. Trends over the past few days have been a southwestward migration of the medium to long range track, so definitely a storm to keep an eye on.

The biggest question on track: How fast will the ridge form in the wake of Danielle and how fast will the ridge weaken to allow Earl north. A little slower on the weakening and we could see an east coast event.

SSTs are fairly warm along it's entire track also, so there is enough heat to form and maintain a major storm. Long range models show a low over the great lakes around the time the storm is off the eastern seaboard, so shear could effect Earl's health around that time.

References:
85GHz: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc10/ATL/07L.EARL/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html
SSTs: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html
Model runs: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Fiona Forms, Earl Now Cat 4, North of the Virgin Islands MikeCAdministrator Sun Aug 29 2010 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 10:06 PM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona MichaelA   Mon Aug 30 2010 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 09:27 PM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 08:55 PM
. * * Earl and Fiona danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Earl oops Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Earl oops Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 30 2010 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Earl oops Rich B   Mon Aug 30 2010 08:16 PM
. * * Earl oops danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 07:57 PM
. * * Re: 97L Update ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 30 2010 07:34 PM
. * * Re: 97L Update MichaelA   Mon Aug 30 2010 06:57 PM
. * * 97L Update danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MichaelA   Mon Aug 30 2010 05:37 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands syfr   Mon Aug 30 2010 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands shewtinstars   Mon Aug 30 2010 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MichaelA   Mon Aug 30 2010 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands LoisCane   Mon Aug 30 2010 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MichaelA   Mon Aug 30 2010 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands scottsvb   Mon Aug 30 2010 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Beaumont, TX   Mon Aug 30 2010 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Earl Just Over the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Evan Johnson   Mon Aug 30 2010 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Jasonch   Mon Aug 30 2010 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands doug   Mon Aug 30 2010 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands typhoon_tip   Mon Aug 30 2010 01:37 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Joeyfl   Mon Aug 30 2010 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 30 2010 12:12 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 29 2010 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Random Chaos   Sun Aug 29 2010 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MichaelA   Sun Aug 29 2010 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Random Chaos   Sun Aug 29 2010 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 06:05 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Earl Random Chaos   Sun Aug 29 2010 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Earl danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 04:57 PM
. * * Earl Vortex Report danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands WeatherNut   Sun Aug 29 2010 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 29 2010 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands scottsvb   Sun Aug 29 2010 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 29 2010 03:14 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands scottsvb   Sun Aug 29 2010 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 12:08 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 11:42 AM

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