Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
Rem Patty
ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
TS Rafael
ADV#5 3:00 pm EDT
15.5N 76.7W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
N at 9 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks
Previous thread Previous   View all threads Index   Next thread Next   Flat Mode Flat  

Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Earl
      Sun Aug 29 2010 01:14 PM

Earl:

85GHz showing some pretty good banding in the storm. SSMIS overpass shows the west and north portions of the storm, while TMI shows SE parts. I would not be surprised between the pressure drop and the 85GHz if we had a cat 2 before long.

Looking at the long range model run from GFS, we need to watch along the eastern seaboard from North Carolina through Canada. The storm is staying offshore in the US in all models right now, but erosion will be a major threat even if the track doesn't move further west. Trends over the past few days have been a southwestward migration of the medium to long range track, so definitely a storm to keep an eye on.

The biggest question on track: How fast will the ridge form in the wake of Danielle and how fast will the ridge weaken to allow Earl north. A little slower on the weakening and we could see an east coast event.

SSTs are fairly warm along it's entire track also, so there is enough heat to form and maintain a major storm. Long range models show a low over the great lakes around the time the storm is off the eastern seaboard, so shear could effect Earl's health around that time.

References:
85GHz: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc10/ATL/07L.EARL/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html
SSTs: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html
Model runs: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Fiona Forms, Earl Now Cat 4, North of the Virgin Islands MikeCAdministrator Sun Aug 29 2010 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona MichaelA   Mon Aug 30 2010 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 04:55 PM
. * * Earl and Fiona danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Earl oops Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Earl oops Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 30 2010 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Earl oops Rich B   Mon Aug 30 2010 04:16 PM
. * * Earl oops danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 03:57 PM
. * * Re: 97L Update ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 30 2010 03:34 PM
. * * Re: 97L Update MichaelA   Mon Aug 30 2010 02:57 PM
. * * 97L Update danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MichaelA   Mon Aug 30 2010 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands syfr   Mon Aug 30 2010 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands shewtinstars   Mon Aug 30 2010 01:13 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 01:11 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MichaelA   Mon Aug 30 2010 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands LoisCane   Mon Aug 30 2010 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MichaelA   Mon Aug 30 2010 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands scottsvb   Mon Aug 30 2010 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Beaumont, TX   Mon Aug 30 2010 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Earl Just Over the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Evan Johnson   Mon Aug 30 2010 10:26 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Jasonch   Mon Aug 30 2010 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 09:49 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands doug   Mon Aug 30 2010 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2010 08:57 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 29 2010 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Joeyfl   Sun Aug 29 2010 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 29 2010 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 29 2010 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Random Chaos   Sun Aug 29 2010 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MichaelA   Sun Aug 29 2010 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Random Chaos   Sun Aug 29 2010 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Earl Random Chaos   Sun Aug 29 2010 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Earl danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 12:57 PM
. * * Earl Vortex Report danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands WeatherNut   Sun Aug 29 2010 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 29 2010 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands scottsvb   Sun Aug 29 2010 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 29 2010 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands scottsvb   Sun Aug 29 2010 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Earl Approaching the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2010 07:42 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 65 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 29879

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center