85GHz showing some pretty good banding in the storm. SSMIS overpass shows the west and north portions of the storm, while TMI shows SE parts. I would not be surprised between the pressure drop and the 85GHz if we had a cat 2 before long.
Looking at the long range model run from GFS, we need to watch along the eastern seaboard from North Carolina through Canada. The storm is staying offshore in the US in all models right now, but erosion will be a major threat even if the track doesn't move further west. Trends over the past few days have been a southwestward migration of the medium to long range track, so definitely a storm to keep an eye on.
The biggest question on track: How fast will the ridge form in the wake of Danielle and how fast will the ridge weaken to allow Earl north. A little slower on the weakening and we could see an east coast event.
SSTs are fairly warm along it's entire track also, so there is enough heat to form and maintain a major storm. Long range models show a low over the great lakes around the time the storm is off the eastern seaboard, so shear could effect Earl's health around that time.
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