Area of Concern - Hurricane Earl

As of 30/07Z - Earl is located near 18.3N 62.3W moving 290/15. Microwave imagery from 30/00Z to 30/0600Z showed Earl actually moving south of west however I could not find this movement on other imagery. It also continued to show Earl intensifying and a solid eye wall forming around the center with an intensity of 86 knots. The links is - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2010_07L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_06.gif (The file is too big to post.)

Model summary as follows:

ECMWF places Earl about 300 nautical miles east of Cape Hatteras in 4 days. The NAM aka WRF aka NMM has come into alignment with most other models with the GFS being the left outlier with a very close approach to the Cape Hatteras, NC shoreline and hugging the east coast of the US through Day 5, Friday.

Synoptic summary as follows:

Deep upper level low over British Columbia/Saskatchewan near 53.5N and 120.0W with longwave trough extending to 27.0N and 116.0W just off the coast of central Baja Calofornia at 30/00Z is forecast to move east and is the major player in regards to the future movement of Earl, Day 4 and Day (Thu and Fri).

At 500 millibars a 598 decameter upper high is center over WV/MD/VA at 30/00Z with ridging southward to just southwest of SW FL where there is a 594 decameter high. This ridge continues to build in heights over the past 24 hours. A 600 decameter or 6000 meter height ridge are rare.

At 500 millibars a 589 decameter upper level low has weakened to an open wave and is centered over Jamaica and dry air to the NE through Cuba continues to fill. This system is moving west away from Earl.

At 200 millibars there is an upper high at 22.0N and 60.0W.

At 200 millibars an upper level low is at 36.0N and 65.0W with a longwave trough extending from the low to the southwest along an axis 30.0N and 71.0W to 21.0N to 73.0W to a COL at 15.0N and 72.0W. It is this trough that NHC will result in Earl making a right turn within the next 24 to 36 hours.

Wind shear ahead of Earl to the northwest has decreased as a result of the departing and weakening upper low near Jamaica.

Sea State Temperatures are 30 degrees C or 86 degrees F along its future track.

Conclusion...

Earl with each run continues to be a tad south and west. Earl is likely to become a major hurricane within the next 12 to 24 hours and the trough immediately in front of Earl as to what extent Earl will move poleward and how fast. The ECMWF has continued to perform splendid this season with the GFS right on its heels; however these two models are considerably different in where Earl will be in 4 days.

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Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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