HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010 (edited~danielw)
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 116 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND 108 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS SHORTLY AFTER 1500 UTC. THIS WAS THE BASIS FOR THE EARLIER INCREASE IN INTENSITY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DROP AND WAS DOWN TO 955 MB ON THE LAST DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE EYE AROUND 1700 UTC. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED EARL...THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR AND IS SURROUNDED BY CLOUD TOPS TO -70 DEGREES CELSIUS OR COLDER. OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO JUST ABOVE 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KT...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.
948mb That's not good. 1000-948mb = max possible windspeed of 127 mph. Earl is still Above the pressure-wind relationship curve at 135 mph.
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 500 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010
...TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 48.7W ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- NONE.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.
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