MikeC
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Hurricane Watches up Along North Carolina Coast
Mon Aug 30 2010 05:56 PM
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Update - 12AM EDT, 01 September 2010
No significant changes with the 01/03Z bulletins so really not too much to say. Earl continues to move toward the northwest with an eventual turn to the north and north northeast - passing just offshore the Outer Banks of North Carolina in the very early hours of Friday morning and then offshore from Cape Cod, Massachusetts, in the early hours of Saturday morning on his way to Nova Scotia (as a Cat I hurricane at that time). Watches are up for the eastern coast of North Carolina, and folks north of that area should closely monitor the progress of this very dangerous hurricane.
Fiona maintains as a minimal Tropical Storm - moving west northwest with a more northwest and northerly turn expected in the next couple of days. Little change in intensity is anticipated, however, because Fiona will pass close to (or through) the northern Leeward Islands, the following Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are in effect:
"A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS"
Fiona will probably only survive for another two or three days before windshear dissipates the weak cyclone.
Invest 98L continues to maintain good structure in the far eastern Atlantic and the convective activity is increasing. The system still has to struggle with dry air for the next couple of days, but after that the conditions for additional development should improve.
ED
5:00 PM EDT Tuesday, 31 August 2010 Update
Hurricane Watches are up Along North Carolina as the outer banks are in the cone of uncertainty. Odds along with most model guidance keeps Earl's center offshore, but close.
Those in the hurricane watch area should pay attention to local officials and media.
Our friend Mark Sudduth at HurricaneTrack.com is located in Wilmington, NC and will have updates from there.
More to come later...
{{MidAtlanticRadar}}
Flhurricane Recording of French Antilles radar for FIona Approach
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Earl|07|7|2010|2|Earl}}
{{StormLinks|Fiona|08|8|2010|3|Fiona}}
{{StormLinks|98L|98|9|2010|4|98L}}
5:30 AM EDT Tuesday, 31 August 2010 Update
Hurricane Earl is on the move toward the west northwest and forecast to toward more northwest. On Earl's current track it comes near enough to cause tropical storm force winds from the Carolinas and parts of Cape cod,before moving toward Novia Scotia in Canada. The forecast is for it to stay offshore, but any deviation to the west would bring it inland.
The good news this morning is that it is looking more likely that it will stay offshore since a more northward component is apparent on satellite, but not enough to let guard down. Tropical Storm watches may go up for parts of the Carolinas later today.
However, on the other hand, the fast movement of Fiona behind it may ultimately be enough to nudge Earl more westward. Which is the bad news of the morning (See the image below) Of course it it gets under to the south enough it could "squeeze" it more northward as well.
Tropical Storm Fiona is under conditions that will likely keep it weak or dissipate it, and the current track keeps it quite well out to sea. Fiona is moving too quickly to organize and ramming itself into the influence of Earl, which will likely pull it northward and out to sea.
Odds currently are that Fiona will stay out to sea, but it will still have to be watched until this is certain.
Beyond Fiona, 98L is now being tracked in the East Atlantic, odds are not much will happen with this one, but it has a 10% chance for development. Another wave, currently over Africa, likely has a better chance to develop once over water than 98L does. There are tropical storm Watches up for the Northern Leewards, as they are in the cone. Fiona continues to travel fairly quickly.
Tee last advisory on Danielle was issued at 11 last night.
List of all state/local Emergency management offices
Radar Recording of Puerto Rico and French Antilles Radar
{{StormCarib}}
St. Maarten Webcam - flhurricane recording of this cam
St. Maarten Radar
5:45 PM EDT Monday, 30 August 2010 Update
Earl is now a Category 4 hurricane, and has a chance to strengthen some more before it reaches conditions less favorable for development.
Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for the Turks and Caicos in the Bahamas, and Tropical Storm Watches are up for some of the islands west of there.
Earl is expected to move more northwesterly tomorrow and may get close to the Carolinas before moving more out to sea. However, the cone past 3 days tends to have large errors, so those in the Carolinas northward need to pay very close attention to this system. If Earl nears North Carolina it would be on Friday. Odds favor the system staying offshore of the US coastline, but it still would be close enough to possibly cause windy conditions along the coastline of the Carolinas.
Fiona has developed east of there, and odds are that it will stay out to sea, however the Leewards are in the cone, and will want to watch it. A lot of the forward motion depends on how strong or weak the system remains and when the turn begins. Fiona is moving briskly to the west at 24mph, and is forecast to be at its nearest to the Leewards Wednesday afternoon or evening. There are currently no watches or warnings associated with Fiona, but may later if it appears to impact the islands.
Beyond that, a lot depends on where Earl goes. If Earl moves out quicker, it will give Fiona more of a chance to let the ridge build up and move more west, if it stays slow, it may force Fiona to move out to sea sooner. In short, both systems will need to be watched closely.
And that's not all, another wave off Africa has a chance to develop down the road.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Sep 01 2010 12:15 AM)
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