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#Beryl is now forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane before reaching the Windward islands, those in the Hurricane Warning area should rush preparation to completion today. Also 96L east of Beryl with a 70% chance to develop.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 304 (Idalia) , Major: 304 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 304 (Idalia) Major: 304 (Idalia)

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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

scottsvb
Weather Master

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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl

Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low
Tue Aug 31 2010 11:41 AM

For the time being, lets also look @ Fiona. She has been hit by 2 things 1 Dry Air..but really more importantly is her speed @ 23-25mph during the past 2-3 days. Same thing started with Earl... once he slowed down to 18mph (not much of a slowdown) he quickly became a hurricane.
Now with that said, I don't expect Fiona to become a hurricane in the next 24-36hrs...but Fiona over the next 12-36hrs will determine so much with her.
Lets look at things. Models jump the gun too much and don't have a strong enough ridging so far this year over the tropical atlantic.. This is why Earl kept going more W and didn't go north of 20N until 66.5W (about). Fiona is suppose to turn more NW today and NNW near 60W by Weds morning. The WV imagery shows that Earl is actually bringing up the heights to his east on the ridge. Also the ridge moves quickly W in the next 48-60hrs and lies pretty much along 22N from 70W out to Bermuda. This causes Earl to move N and then NE around it but where will Fiona be? Models say somewhere around 25N and 65W in 60hrs. I really can't grasp that cause of Fiona slowing down some as she approaches 60W and I feel 16.8N and moving more WNW later this evening and tonight...then a more NW path towards U.S. British Islands and even maybe Puerto Rico Weds afternoon and night. This is cause the models have been too weak this year with the ridging and wanting to pull systems around the ridge too quickly.
It be interesting also on if she strengthens some tonight. Shear will pick up on Weds in the wake of Earl, but I don't think the shear maps are telling the story correctly also in the near term.
So thing is.. next 12-36hrs will be key. When will Fiona turn NW or even NNW (if the models do have it correctly) or will Fiona move more WNW tonight and not turn NW until sometime on Weds or Weds night? Also what will the shear be from Earl? The short term in path,speed, shear zone, and strength will be important over this time frame.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Hurricane Watches up Along North Carolina Coast	MikeC	Tue Aug 31 2010 11:41 AM
Re: Satellite Services Division	MichaelA	Wed Sep 01 2010 09:37 AM
Re: RECON	scottsvb	Wed Sep 01 2010 03:16 AM
Re: RECON	scottsvb	Wed Sep 01 2010 12:59 AM
RECON	danielw	Wed Sep 01 2010 12:28 AM
Re: Satellite Sevices Division	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 31 2010 10:44 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up Along North Carolina	Ed Dunham	Tue Aug 31 2010 10:42 PM
Re: Satellite Services Division	danielw	Tue Aug 31 2010 10:22 PM
Satellite Sevices Division	danielw	Tue Aug 31 2010 10:07 PM
Re: Administrative Notes	MikeC	Tue Aug 31 2010 10:04 PM
Re: Earl and Fiona and the Wave East	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 31 2010 09:27 PM
Administrative Notes	Ed Dunham	Tue Aug 31 2010 07:13 PM
Re: Earl and dry air	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 31 2010 07:06 PM
Re: Earl and dry air	bobbutts	Tue Aug 31 2010 07:01 PM
Re: Earl and dry air	mcgowanmc	Tue Aug 31 2010 06:57 PM
Re: Earl and dry air	civil2183	Tue Aug 31 2010 06:38 PM
Re: Earl and dry air	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 31 2010 06:16 PM
Re: Earl and dry air	MichaelA	Tue Aug 31 2010 06:13 PM
Re: Earl and dry air	danielw	Tue Aug 31 2010 06:05 PM
Re: Earl and Fiona and the Wave East	MichaelA	Tue Aug 31 2010 05:44 PM
Re: Fiona steering	danielw	Tue Aug 31 2010 05:10 PM
Re: Fiona steering	bobbutts	Tue Aug 31 2010 04:51 PM
Re: Earl and Fiona and the Wave East	danielw	Tue Aug 31 2010 04:41 PM
Re: Fiona steering	Rad	Tue Aug 31 2010 04:32 PM
Re: Earl and Fiona and the Wave East	MichaelA	Tue Aug 31 2010 04:31 PM
Re: Fiona steering	ftlaudbob	Tue Aug 31 2010 04:29 PM
Re: Earl and Fiona and the Wave East	danielw	Tue Aug 31 2010 04:12 PM
Re: Earl and Fiona and the Wave East	k___g	Tue Aug 31 2010 04:03 PM
Re: Fiona steering	bobbutts	Tue Aug 31 2010 03:55 PM
Re: Fiona steering	Old Sailor	Tue Aug 31 2010 03:45 PM
Re: Fiona steering	MichaelA	Tue Aug 31 2010 03:26 PM
Re: Fiona steering	MikeC	Tue Aug 31 2010 03:15 PM
Fiona steering	danielw	Tue Aug 31 2010 02:54 PM
Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low	Bloodstar	Tue Aug 31 2010 01:06 PM
Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low	Storm Hunter	Tue Aug 31 2010 12:56 PM
Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low	danielw	Tue Aug 31 2010 12:55 PM
Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low	Wingman51	Tue Aug 31 2010 12:49 PM
Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low	scottsvb	Tue Aug 31 2010 11:41 AM
Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low	Joeyfl	Tue Aug 31 2010 11:40 AM
Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low	stormtiger	Tue Aug 31 2010 11:11 AM
Re: Earl and Fiona	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 31 2010 08:39 AM
Re: Earl and Fiona	danielw	Tue Aug 31 2010 07:57 AM
Re: Earl and Fiona	Ed Dunham	Mon Aug 30 2010 11:02 PM
Re: Earl and Fiona	craigm	Mon Aug 30 2010 10:39 PM
Re: Earl and Fiona	Random Chaos	Mon Aug 30 2010 10:28 PM
Re: Earl and Fiona	lordvector	Mon Aug 30 2010 10:24 PM
Re: Earl and Fiona	craigm	Mon Aug 30 2010 10:14 PM
Re: Earl and Fiona	Random Chaos	Mon Aug 30 2010 09:59 PM
Re: Earl and Fiona	ftlaudbob	Mon Aug 30 2010 09:56 PM
Re: Earl and Fiona	MikeC	Mon Aug 30 2010 09:02 PM
Re: Earl and Fiona	LoisCane	Mon Aug 30 2010 07:58 PM
Re: Earl and Fiona	WeatherNut	Mon Aug 30 2010 07:39 PM
Wow! Central pressure down to 935 hPa!	Raymond	Mon Aug 30 2010 07:28 PM

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