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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low
      Tue Aug 31 2010 03:41 PM

For the time being, lets also look @ Fiona. She has been hit by 2 things 1 Dry Air..but really more importantly is her speed @ 23-25mph during the past 2-3 days. Same thing started with Earl... once he slowed down to 18mph (not much of a slowdown) he quickly became a hurricane.
Now with that said, I don't expect Fiona to become a hurricane in the next 24-36hrs...but Fiona over the next 12-36hrs will determine so much with her.
Lets look at things. Models jump the gun too much and don't have a strong enough ridging so far this year over the tropical atlantic.. This is why Earl kept going more W and didn't go north of 20N until 66.5W (about). Fiona is suppose to turn more NW today and NNW near 60W by Weds morning. The WV imagery shows that Earl is actually bringing up the heights to his east on the ridge. Also the ridge moves quickly W in the next 48-60hrs and lies pretty much along 22N from 70W out to Bermuda. This causes Earl to move N and then NE around it but where will Fiona be? Models say somewhere around 25N and 65W in 60hrs. I really can't grasp that cause of Fiona slowing down some as she approaches 60W and I feel 16.8N and moving more WNW later this evening and tonight...then a more NW path towards U.S. British Islands and even maybe Puerto Rico Weds afternoon and night. This is cause the models have been too weak this year with the ridging and wanting to pull systems around the ridge too quickly.
It be interesting also on if she strengthens some tonight. Shear will pick up on Weds in the wake of Earl, but I don't think the shear maps are telling the story correctly also in the near term.
So thing is.. next 12-36hrs will be key. When will Fiona turn NW or even NNW (if the models do have it correctly) or will Fiona move more WNW tonight and not turn NW until sometime on Weds or Weds night? Also what will the shear be from Earl? The short term in path,speed, shear zone, and strength will be important over this time frame.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Watches up Along North Carolina Coast MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 31 2010 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Satellite Services Division MichaelA   Wed Sep 01 2010 01:37 PM
. * * Re: RECON scottsvb   Wed Sep 01 2010 07:16 AM
. * * Re: RECON scottsvb   Wed Sep 01 2010 04:59 AM
. * * RECON danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2010 04:28 AM
. * * Re: Satellite Sevices Division Random Chaos   Wed Sep 01 2010 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up Along North Carolina Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2010 02:42 AM
. * * Re: Satellite Services Division danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2010 02:22 AM
. * * Satellite Sevices Division danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2010 02:07 AM
. * * Re: Administrative Notes MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2010 02:04 AM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona and the Wave East Random Chaos   Wed Sep 01 2010 01:27 AM
. * * Administrative Notes Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Aug 31 2010 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Earl and dry air Random Chaos   Tue Aug 31 2010 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Earl and dry air bobbutts   Tue Aug 31 2010 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Earl and dry air mcgowanmc   Tue Aug 31 2010 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Earl and dry air civil2183   Tue Aug 31 2010 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Earl and dry air Random Chaos   Tue Aug 31 2010 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Earl and dry air MichaelA   Tue Aug 31 2010 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Earl and dry air danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 31 2010 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona and the Wave East MichaelA   Tue Aug 31 2010 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Fiona steering danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 31 2010 09:10 PM
. * * Re: Fiona steering bobbutts   Tue Aug 31 2010 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona and the Wave East danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 31 2010 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Fiona steering Rad   Tue Aug 31 2010 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona and the Wave East MichaelA   Tue Aug 31 2010 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Fiona steering ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 31 2010 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona and the Wave East danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 31 2010 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona and the Wave East k___g   Tue Aug 31 2010 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Fiona steering bobbutts   Tue Aug 31 2010 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Fiona steering Old Sailor   Tue Aug 31 2010 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Fiona steering MichaelA   Tue Aug 31 2010 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Fiona steering MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 31 2010 07:15 PM
. * * Fiona steering danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 31 2010 06:54 PM
. * * Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low Bloodstar   Tue Aug 31 2010 05:06 PM
. * * Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 31 2010 04:56 PM
. * * Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 31 2010 04:55 PM
. * * Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low Wingman51   Tue Aug 31 2010 04:49 PM
. * * Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low scottsvb   Tue Aug 31 2010 03:41 PM
. * * Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low Joeyfl   Tue Aug 31 2010 03:40 PM
. * * Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low stormtiger   Tue Aug 31 2010 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona Random Chaos   Tue Aug 31 2010 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 31 2010 11:57 AM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Aug 31 2010 03:02 AM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona craigm   Tue Aug 31 2010 02:39 AM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona Random Chaos   Tue Aug 31 2010 02:28 AM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona lordvector   Tue Aug 31 2010 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona craigm   Tue Aug 31 2010 02:14 AM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona Random Chaos   Tue Aug 31 2010 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 31 2010 01:56 AM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 31 2010 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona LoisCane   Mon Aug 30 2010 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Earl and Fiona WeatherNut   Mon Aug 30 2010 11:39 PM
. * * Wow! Central pressure down to 935 hPa! Raymond   Mon Aug 30 2010 11:28 PM

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