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#Beryl strengthening east of the Caribbean Islands, may be a hurricane tomorrow. Barbados is now under a Hurricane Watch as Beryl may be there Monday. Area east of Beryl up to 60% and 94L at 40%.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 304 (Idalia) , Major: 304 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 304 (Idalia) Major: 304 (Idalia)

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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist

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Posts: 576

Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today
Wed Sep 01 2010 06:50 PM

Well ... we have our selves a real dicey situation up in eastern Long Island, RI and eastern/SE MA.

I have been watching the water vapor imagery over the northwest Atlantic Basin periodically during the day and the ridge prominence in the vicinity is impressive as an anticyclonic lobe is currently pressing ESE toward the lower Maritimes. Enough so to make me want to question the NAM's recent east trend per the 12z and now 18z guidance cycles.

The key is going to be the exact morphology of the of the current closing deep layer vortex over the Great Lakes, and what effect that has on tipping the flow more south to north in orientation in the steering levels along and off the East Coast. The past 48 hours of modeling has unilaterally showed gradually more latitudinal amplitude (not just wind maxes) with that large synoptic evolution, which I believe is pretty strongly related to why we have inched Earl west over time.

That said, Earl seems really on a NNW trajectory to me as of the last 3 hours. We'll see how this holds ... but the last 1 hour "wobble motion" is also pretty clearly due N. The more north component this system gets earlier on, the better off SE New England will be. So this may tentatively be good news farther up the Coast.

NC and VA residence should definitely keep up with on-going preparations relative to advisory status

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Sep 01 2010 06:53 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Earl Gone, Watching Ex Gaston and an Area in the Southwest Gulf	MikeC	Wed Sep 01 2010 06:50 PM
Re: Earl Brushing North Carolina-Ocracoke Island	syfr	Sun Sep 05 2010 07:56 PM
Re: Gaston, and Two Other Systems as Earl becomes Extratropical	WesnWylie	Sun Sep 05 2010 10:48 AM
Re: Earl Brushing North Carolina	OrlandoDan	Sun Sep 05 2010 08:47 AM
Re: Earl Brushing North Carolina	CarolinaGurl	Sat Sep 04 2010 09:07 PM
Re: Gaston, and Two Other Systems as Earl becomes Extratropical	WesnWylie	Sat Sep 04 2010 06:02 PM
Gaston Part Deaux	danielw	Sat Sep 04 2010 08:28 AM
Re: Earl Brushing North Carolina	MikeC	Fri Sep 03 2010 05:36 PM
Re: Nice eye picture on Raleigh radar	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2010 09:16 AM
Re: Nice eye picture on Raleigh radar	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 03 2010 01:09 AM
Re: Nice eye picture on Raleigh radar	Random Chaos	Thu Sep 02 2010 07:43 PM
Nice eye picture on Raleigh radar	syfr	Thu Sep 02 2010 06:40 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Ed Dunham	Thu Sep 02 2010 05:33 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	k___g	Thu Sep 02 2010 04:48 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	k___g	Thu Sep 02 2010 03:40 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	MikeC	Thu Sep 02 2010 03:36 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	mwillis	Thu Sep 02 2010 03:32 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Beaumont, TX	Thu Sep 02 2010 03:31 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	MikeC	Thu Sep 02 2010 02:51 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	mwillis	Thu Sep 02 2010 02:29 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	hogrunr	Thu Sep 02 2010 02:25 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	mwillis	Thu Sep 02 2010 02:22 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 02 2010 02:08 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	k___g	Thu Sep 02 2010 01:38 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	mwillis	Thu Sep 02 2010 01:23 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	LoisCane	Thu Sep 02 2010 01:03 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	sailor	Thu Sep 02 2010 11:26 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	doug	Thu Sep 02 2010 10:16 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Ed in Va	Thu Sep 02 2010 09:07 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	MikeC	Thu Sep 02 2010 06:54 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Random Chaos	Thu Sep 02 2010 06:30 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 02 2010 04:00 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 02 2010 03:46 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 02 2010 03:38 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 02 2010 03:24 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	danielw	Thu Sep 02 2010 03:14 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 02 2010 02:58 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	ftlaudbob	Thu Sep 02 2010 02:57 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 02 2010 02:50 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	danielw	Thu Sep 02 2010 02:49 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 02 2010 02:35 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	danielw	Thu Sep 02 2010 02:20 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 02 2010 02:05 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	danielw	Thu Sep 02 2010 01:57 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 02 2010 01:53 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	ftlaudbob	Thu Sep 02 2010 01:43 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	danielw	Thu Sep 02 2010 12:05 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Random Chaos	Wed Sep 01 2010 11:49 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	danielw	Wed Sep 01 2010 11:45 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Random Chaos	Wed Sep 01 2010 10:20 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	MikeC	Wed Sep 01 2010 10:19 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Random Chaos	Wed Sep 01 2010 09:50 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	danielw	Wed Sep 01 2010 09:12 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	MichaelA	Wed Sep 01 2010 09:03 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Random Chaos	Wed Sep 01 2010 09:02 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	danielw	Wed Sep 01 2010 08:55 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	MichaelA	Wed Sep 01 2010 08:48 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	ftlaudbob	Wed Sep 01 2010 08:36 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Random Chaos	Wed Sep 01 2010 08:18 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	RevUp	Wed Sep 01 2010 08:13 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Random Chaos	Wed Sep 01 2010 06:57 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	typhoon_tip	Wed Sep 01 2010 06:50 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Random Chaos	Wed Sep 01 2010 06:46 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	MikeC	Wed Sep 01 2010 06:24 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	CFHC	Wed Sep 01 2010 04:26 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	doug	Wed Sep 01 2010 01:33 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	MikeC	Wed Sep 01 2010 10:49 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	WeatherNut	Wed Sep 01 2010 10:34 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	hogrunr	Wed Sep 01 2010 10:22 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	Random Chaos	Wed Sep 01 2010 07:59 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	MikeC	Wed Sep 01 2010 07:04 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today	MikeC	Wed Sep 01 2010 06:47 AM

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