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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 20 (Milton) , Major: 20 (Milton) Florida - Any: 20 (Milton) Major: 20 (Milton)
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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge
      Sun Sep 05 2010 02:37 PM

At 18Z, the Gaston system was located near 17.1N 52.3W and convection was starting to wrap around the center. Although the system is still quite weak, the developmental environment is becoming a little more favorable as shear begins to decline.

Models offer a variety of solutions, and because of that uncertainty, the eventual strength and track is still uncertain - except near term motion toward the west seems like a certainty. SHIP and the BAM suite develop the system into a hurricane just south of Puerto Rico in three days. The 05/12Z GFDL takes the system well to the south of Hispaniola as a tropical storm while the 05/18Z UKMET brings the system close to southern Jamaica. Finally, the 05/12Z HWRF take the system along the south coast of Puerto Rico, then through the Mona Passage to just off the north coast of the Dominican Republic as a tropical storm in 5 days.
ED

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Gaston Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator Sun Sep 05 2010 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 05 2010 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sun Sep 05 2010 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge doug   Mon Sep 06 2010 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge Jasonch   Mon Sep 06 2010 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge doug   Mon Sep 06 2010 11:18 AM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge Wingman51   Wed Sep 01 2010 10:57 AM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge weatherpilot   Thu Sep 02 2010 11:45 PM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge vaughn   Fri Sep 03 2010 09:26 AM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge Jasonch   Fri Sep 03 2010 10:13 AM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Fri Sep 03 2010 07:55 PM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge flanewscameraman   Sat Sep 04 2010 08:23 AM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge vaughn   Sat Sep 04 2010 07:57 PM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge vonkamp   Fri Sep 03 2010 09:34 AM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2010 10:05 AM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge StormHound   Fri Sep 03 2010 09:50 AM

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