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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)
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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge
      Sun Sep 05 2010 06:37 PM

At 18Z, the Gaston system was located near 17.1N 52.3W and convection was starting to wrap around the center. Although the system is still quite weak, the developmental environment is becoming a little more favorable as shear begins to decline.

Models offer a variety of solutions, and because of that uncertainty, the eventual strength and track is still uncertain - except near term motion toward the west seems like a certainty. SHIP and the BAM suite develop the system into a hurricane just south of Puerto Rico in three days. The 05/12Z GFDL takes the system well to the south of Hispaniola as a tropical storm while the 05/18Z UKMET brings the system close to southern Jamaica. Finally, the 05/12Z HWRF take the system along the south coast of Puerto Rico, then through the Mona Passage to just off the north coast of the Dominican Republic as a tropical storm in 5 days.
ED

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Gaston Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator Sun Sep 05 2010 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 05 2010 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sun Sep 05 2010 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge doug   Mon Sep 06 2010 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge Jasonch   Mon Sep 06 2010 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge doug   Mon Sep 06 2010 03:18 PM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge Wingman51   Wed Sep 01 2010 02:57 PM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge weatherpilot   Fri Sep 03 2010 03:45 AM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge vaughn   Fri Sep 03 2010 01:26 PM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge Jasonch   Fri Sep 03 2010 02:13 PM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Fri Sep 03 2010 11:55 PM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge flanewscameraman   Sat Sep 04 2010 12:23 PM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge vaughn   Sat Sep 04 2010 11:57 PM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge vonkamp   Fri Sep 03 2010 01:34 PM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2010 02:05 PM
. * * Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge StormHound   Fri Sep 03 2010 01:50 PM

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