Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Re: Too soon?
Sun Sep 12 2010 12:18 PM
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Actually I'm going to take your side on this one because I felt that you had asked some thought provoking (and perhaps provocative) questions. Sometimes science can get stagnant without some provocation.
The ability to attain a total of 20 named systems this year is very low in my opinion - but that is a position that I've stated since May (see the Outlook for the 2010 Season in the Storm Forum). The quality of the early season storm forecasts this year by those organizations that normally issue these types of forecasts had some flaws in them - but that is a different issue that I will likely comment on at the end of the season. Suffice to say that these organizations will all justify their individual forecasts no matter what the final numbers are. CSU will probably state that the ACE was uncommonly high and therefore they made a good forecast, and for NOAA its easy. When you forecast a range of 14-20 (which from a Meteorological perspective is not a good forecast - its like saying that the maximum temperature today in Melbourne will be somewhere between 70 and 100 degrees), if the season is just a little above normal it becomes difficult not to hit your forecast.
Right now we have 9 named systems this season with the likelyhood of having the tenth one by sometime tomorrow. But starting with 9 at this point in the season, during an average season 5 more storms could be anticipated - with one of those 5 forming in November. A November storm this season may not happen because frontal systems, although weak, are already pushing down to the northern Gulf coast, i.e., by November the waters will have already cooled off in the subtropical areas of the Gulf and Caribbean that are the focal points for development at that time of the year. But even if we consider 5 more - or even 6, that will put the total for the year at 14 or 15, not 20. With an early onset of cooler weather it just doesn't seem likely that the tropical cyclone season would extend into December in the Atlantic basin.
As to the value of a 'seasonal storm total forecast' - probably minimal. As a member of an Emergency Management Team, I believe that there is some planning value that this type of forecast can provide, but if those plans include financial considerations based on the expected level of activity that 'might' impact your area, i.e., frequency with which storm drains are cleared based on a budget allocation or the extent to which sandbags, tarps, etc., are stockpiled, then the forecast at least needs to be in the ballpark. These forecasts do have a direct relationship to your homeowners insurance costs if you live in a hurricane-prone area. Many years ago State Farm was one of the financial contributors to the CSU Seasonal Forecasts.
This was a good thread with excellent input from others. The general public normally (not always) tends to quickly forget a bad forecast because total correctness is not expected, but credibility can suffer if bad forecasts become a bad habit. Thats when folks dial in another station. 
Cheers,
ED
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