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Invest 95L is now being tracked in the central Atlantic, with a 40% chance to develop and very strong model support. Those in the Lesser Antilles of the Caribbean should watch it closely Sunday/Monday. 94L at 20% chance to develop.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4
      Fri Sep 17 2010 12:55 AM

Whoa - look at the change in IR in the last 2 hours on Karl! Clearly defined eye visible on IR with very deep convection covering about 60% of the CDO.

Recon is maybe 20-30 minutes out of another eye pass, but UW-CMISS ADT Adjusted T number is up to 5.9, or in other words a storm capable of sustaining 115kt winds, or potentially a maximum strength of a minimal Category 4 storm. Note that this is the theoretical maximum strength, and it takes time for the winds to catch up with structural changes and pressure drops.

I would not be surprised if NHC issued a special advisory following the recon pass given how close to shore Karl is.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Focus Toward Igor and Bermuda MikeCAdministrator Fri Sep 17 2010 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 k___g   Sun Sep 19 2010 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 k___g   Sat Sep 18 2010 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 18 2010 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 18 2010 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 18 2010 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 mikethewreck   Sat Sep 18 2010 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 18 2010 09:24 AM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 mikethewreck   Fri Sep 17 2010 11:47 AM
. * * Karl Pressure rise danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 17 2010 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Sep 17 2010 09:23 AM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 17 2010 08:54 AM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 17 2010 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 17 2010 08:30 AM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 vineyardsaker   Fri Sep 17 2010 08:22 AM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 17 2010 07:34 AM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 BTfromAZ   Fri Sep 17 2010 04:56 AM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 Storm Hunter   Fri Sep 17 2010 01:51 AM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 Random Chaos   Fri Sep 17 2010 01:40 AM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 Storm Hunter   Fri Sep 17 2010 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 Random Chaos   Fri Sep 17 2010 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 16 2010 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 16 2010 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Sep 16 2010 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 WeatherNut   Thu Sep 16 2010 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 Random Chaos   Thu Sep 16 2010 08:03 AM
. * * Re: Karl Back Over Water, Igor Maintains Cat 4 JoshuaK   Thu Sep 16 2010 07:40 AM

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