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Kirk becomes farthest east Major for time of year on record. Leslie becomes record 5th name for any 24 Sep - 2 Oct on record in Atlantic basin. Very active period continues.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 6 (Helene) , Major: 6 (Helene) Florida - Any: 6 (Helene) Major: 6 (Helene)
Hur Kirk
ADV#18 5:00 pm EDT
21.1N 46.7W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 945mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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TS Leslie
ADV#6 5:00 pm EDT
10.1N 31.5W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 1001mb
Moving:
W at 6 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
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weathernet
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Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge
      Thu Sep 23 2010 08:27 AM

Funny as it sounds...., I'd say that "anything could happen" is a pretty fair appraisal of 95L. Differing models seem to be fluctuating with regards to their own respective forecasts. As of this a.m., most recent GFDL model is suddenly more "bullish" that ever and brings a powerful hurricane near or over South Florida, while the HWRF which has consistently re-curved this system out of the Caribbean and seemingly towards Florida or the southeast Gulf, now keeps 95L far to the south and into the BOC. The global GFS and Euro have been "generally" consistent with their own overall solution, though their intensity forecasts have been up and down.

As of this writing, we do not have an organized deep systems, so models really cannot be relied upon for too much accuracy and to an extent are basically attempting to forecast a "what if" scenario.

With edit to my own post........case in point! In error I realized that it was last night's GFDL 0Z run that very aggressively develops 95L, and just a quickly the 6Z has backed off a lot and track appears more ambiguous.

Edited by weathernet (Thu Sep 23 2010 08:40 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Matthew Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 23 2010 08:27 AM
. * * Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2010 03:43 PM
. * * Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 23 2010 10:17 PM
. * * Matthew Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 24 2010 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Sep 24 2010 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge weathernet   Fri Sep 24 2010 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Sep 24 2010 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 24 2010 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 24 2010 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge berrywr   Fri Sep 24 2010 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Rasvar   Fri Sep 24 2010 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge WesnWylie   Fri Sep 24 2010 07:18 PM
. * * Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Sep 24 2010 10:38 AM
. * * Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge Edski   Fri Sep 24 2010 12:08 AM
. * * Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Thu Sep 23 2010 04:08 PM
. * * Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2010 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Lisa and The Caribbean Wave weathernet   Wed Sep 22 2010 09:47 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 21 2010 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 21 2010 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge Owlguin   Wed Sep 22 2010 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 22 2010 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Wed Sep 22 2010 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Thu Sep 23 2010 06:23 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Thu Sep 23 2010 08:27 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 23 2010 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Wed Sep 22 2010 10:10 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge hogrunr   Wed Sep 22 2010 10:38 AM

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