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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

weathernet
Storm Tracker

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Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge
Thu Sep 23 2010 08:27 AM

Funny as it sounds...., I'd say that "anything could happen" is a pretty fair appraisal of 95L. Differing models seem to be fluctuating with regards to their own respective forecasts. As of this a.m., most recent GFDL model is suddenly more "bullish" that ever and brings a powerful hurricane near or over South Florida, while the HWRF which has consistently re-curved this system out of the Caribbean and seemingly towards Florida or the southeast Gulf, now keeps 95L far to the south and into the BOC. The global GFS and Euro have been "generally" consistent with their own overall solution, though their intensity forecasts have been up and down.

As of this writing, we do not have an organized deep systems, so models really cannot be relied upon for too much accuracy and to an extent are basically attempting to forecast a "what if" scenario.

With edit to my own post........case in point! In error I realized that it was last night's GFDL 0Z run that very aggressively develops 95L, and just a quickly the 6Z has backed off a lot and track appears more ambiguous.

Edited by weathernet (Thu Sep 23 2010 08:40 AM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Thu Sep 23 2010 08:27 AM
Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Thu Sep 23 2010 03:43 PM
Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge	Thunderbird12	Thu Sep 23 2010 10:17 PM
Matthew Forecast Lounge	danielw	Fri Sep 24 2010 10:58 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Fri Sep 24 2010 11:37 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	weathernet	Fri Sep 24 2010 01:17 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Fri Sep 24 2010 05:58 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Fri Sep 24 2010 12:09 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Thunderbird12	Fri Sep 24 2010 06:00 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	berrywr	Fri Sep 24 2010 06:17 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Rasvar	Fri Sep 24 2010 06:30 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	WesnWylie	Fri Sep 24 2010 07:18 PM
Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Fri Sep 24 2010 10:38 AM
Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge	Edski	Fri Sep 24 2010 12:08 AM
Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge	Ed in Va	Thu Sep 23 2010 04:08 PM
Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Thu Sep 23 2010 04:14 PM
Re: Lisa and The Caribbean Wave	weathernet	Wed Sep 22 2010 09:47 AM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Tue Sep 21 2010 07:26 PM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	danielw	Tue Sep 21 2010 10:08 PM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	Owlguin	Wed Sep 22 2010 08:16 AM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Wed Sep 22 2010 08:32 AM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	weathernet	Wed Sep 22 2010 10:39 AM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	OrlandoDan	Thu Sep 23 2010 06:23 AM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	weathernet	Thu Sep 23 2010 08:27 AM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	Thunderbird12	Thu Sep 23 2010 10:47 AM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Wed Sep 22 2010 10:10 AM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	hogrunr	Wed Sep 22 2010 10:38 AM

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