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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

Thunderbird12
Meteorologist

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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma

Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge
Fri Sep 24 2010 06:00 PM

As MikeC mentioned above, the low pressure system that may form over the Caribbean later in the week may not be fully tropical, at least in the sense of being a typical tropical storm/hurricane. While the models can't fully resolve a hurricane, the GFS and ECMWF are capable of producing compact tropical cyclones of hurricane strength. Neither of those models do that with the potential Caribbean system... rather the low pressure they develop is a order of magnitude larger than a typical tropical storm and the pressure gradient is pretty flat (rather than ramping up quickly near the center). You can also tell from the forecast precip pattern that it is not a typical tropical cyclone, with no well-defined QPF bullseyes near the center. Anything that gets as far north as FL or the GOM may also become involved with a cold front and undergo some baroclinic interaction.

This is not to say that a true tropical cyclone (of the type that NHC is concerned with) could not form, but it looks like it would be a case of a smaller-scale vortex developing from or within a broad low pressure area, rather than the usual case of a small-scale disturbance growing upscale into a tropical cyclone.

Also, while it seems likely that Matthew will dissipate over land, that can't be taken for granted at this point. The forecast becomes even more complex if that hangs around in some form.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Fri Sep 24 2010 06:00 PM
Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Thu Sep 23 2010 03:43 PM
Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge	Thunderbird12	Thu Sep 23 2010 10:17 PM
Matthew Forecast Lounge	danielw	Fri Sep 24 2010 10:58 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Fri Sep 24 2010 11:37 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	weathernet	Fri Sep 24 2010 01:17 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Fri Sep 24 2010 05:58 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Fri Sep 24 2010 12:09 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Thunderbird12	Fri Sep 24 2010 06:00 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	berrywr	Fri Sep 24 2010 06:17 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Rasvar	Fri Sep 24 2010 06:30 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	WesnWylie	Fri Sep 24 2010 07:18 PM
Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Fri Sep 24 2010 10:38 AM
Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge	Edski	Fri Sep 24 2010 12:08 AM
Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge	Ed in Va	Thu Sep 23 2010 04:08 PM
Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Thu Sep 23 2010 04:14 PM
Re: Lisa and The Caribbean Wave	weathernet	Wed Sep 22 2010 09:47 AM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Tue Sep 21 2010 07:26 PM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	danielw	Tue Sep 21 2010 10:08 PM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	Owlguin	Wed Sep 22 2010 08:16 AM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Wed Sep 22 2010 08:32 AM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	weathernet	Wed Sep 22 2010 10:39 AM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	OrlandoDan	Thu Sep 23 2010 06:23 AM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	weathernet	Thu Sep 23 2010 08:27 AM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	Thunderbird12	Thu Sep 23 2010 10:47 AM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Wed Sep 22 2010 10:10 AM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	hogrunr	Wed Sep 22 2010 10:38 AM

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