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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge
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berrywr
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge
      Fri Sep 24 2010 06:17 PM

This is the problem with Matthew. Honduras is not flat except along the coast; it's mountainous. Where the shades of grey begin are when Matthew's mid level center decouples from it's surface and low level center. The mid level center should continue west and possibly emerge on the Pacific side. It is the low level center and where it goes that decide if it's Matthew that re-emerges into the Caribbean, a combination of both systems; Matthew's low level circulation and the disturbance farther to the east depicted on satellite and models up to 500 millibars. I poured over the 12Z package today and I think it will be Nicole, not Matthew. Whatever develops is likely to strike the US given the pattern shift and Typhoon Malakas becoming a powerful post-Tropical system in the Gulf of Alaska where a formidable system is now. The downstream amplification of the W US ridge and downstream cutoff low should pull Nicole poleward and for the moment the models are over the place on position including the GFS and a strike on the FL panhandle in 8 days....that's a long way off between now and then. The ECMWF suggests it's Matthew that will strike FL in 6 days. I share Thunderbird12's reasoning; I can't dismiss the real possibility that this system may very well be subtropical or post-Tropical given the synoptic features that will be in play given the depth of the cutoff low over the Mid-South late this weekend and early next week. Initially it is expected to move fairly slow across the South before lifting NE.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Edited by berrywr (Fri Sep 24 2010 06:24 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Matthew Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator Fri Sep 24 2010 06:17 PM
. * * Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2010 03:43 PM
. * * Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 23 2010 10:17 PM
. * * Matthew Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 24 2010 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Sep 24 2010 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge weathernet   Fri Sep 24 2010 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Sep 24 2010 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 24 2010 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 24 2010 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge berrywr   Fri Sep 24 2010 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Rasvar   Fri Sep 24 2010 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge WesnWylie   Fri Sep 24 2010 07:18 PM
. * * Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Sep 24 2010 10:38 AM
. * * Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge Edski   Fri Sep 24 2010 12:08 AM
. * * Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Thu Sep 23 2010 04:08 PM
. * * Re: TD#15 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2010 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Lisa and The Caribbean Wave weathernet   Wed Sep 22 2010 09:47 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 21 2010 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 21 2010 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge Owlguin   Wed Sep 22 2010 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 22 2010 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Wed Sep 22 2010 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Thu Sep 23 2010 06:23 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Thu Sep 23 2010 08:27 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 23 2010 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Wed Sep 22 2010 10:10 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge hogrunr   Wed Sep 22 2010 10:38 AM

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