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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
TD16 Forecast Lounge
      Sun Sep 26 2010 02:28 PM

A weak low pressure system is evident in the western Caribbean Sea well to the southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, near 18.4N 84.6W at 26/18Z. Most of the convection is located well to the east of the center. The system is currently moving to the northwest, however as it develops better structure upper level winds should prompt more of a northward motion toward western Cuba. The system is under northwesterly windshear so only slow development seems reasonable and initially the system could take on more of a subtropical appearance. SSTs in the area are about 28.5C. Since the system appears rather weak, the current center may only be transient in nature.

Some of the models move a moderate system out of the western Caribbean Sea northward across western Cuba on Tuesday, over south Florida on Wednesday and off the Florida east coast on Thursday. Given the slow evolution of this system, while the track seems reasonable, the timing is still subject to reconsideration. If the system moves slower, a stronger system could develop. At this time there are no real indicators that point to the development of a strong cyclone and over the past 24 hours most of the models have backed off on intensity. Since the timeframe for any necessary preparation is only a few days away, this potential development area needs to be monitored closely by residents in the Yucatan, western Cuba and southern Florida.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Sep 28 2010 11:05 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TD16 Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator Sun Sep 26 2010 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Forecast Lounge CDMOrlando   Sun Sep 26 2010 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Forecast Lounge isobar   Sun Sep 26 2010 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Mon Sep 27 2010 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Forecast Lounge allan   Mon Sep 27 2010 02:56 PM
. * * Re: TD16 Forecast Lounge isobar   Mon Sep 27 2010 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Sun Sep 26 2010 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Forecast Lounge Wingman51   Mon Sep 27 2010 01:13 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Forecast Lounge isobar   Sun Sep 26 2010 03:07 PM

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