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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL

Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
Tue Sep 28 2010 06:14 PM

TD16 is indeed more subtropical rather than tropical - and the structure was also subtropical this morning as well. The TD is still quite weak with poor structure - as are most subtropical systems. The TD should cross over western Cuba just to the south of Havana and the terrain in that area is rather flat with mountains further to the west. Since the system is already weak, crossing Cuba is not going to disrupt it too much (if at all). Havana pressure at 5PM and 6PM EDT was down to 1000MB.

Havana, Cuba Weather

With reference to some earlier comments, the DSHP model does consider land interaction, i.e., inland decay. Note the difference between the SHIP and the DSHP in the following:

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1829 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162010) 20100928 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100928 1800 100929 0600 100929 1800 100930 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 82.9W 22.5N 82.7W 24.3N 81.6W 26.9N 79.7W
BAMD 21.2N 82.9W 23.6N 82.4W 27.0N 81.7W 31.1N 80.9W
BAMM 21.2N 82.9W 22.8N 82.3W 25.3N 81.1W 28.8N 79.2W
LBAR 21.2N 82.9W 23.5N 82.2W 27.2N 81.5W 32.0N 80.3W
SHIP 35KTS...........41KTS..............50KTS..............57KTS
DSHP 35KTS...........33KTS..............44KTS..............44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100930 1800 101001 1800 101002 1800 101003 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.4N 77.6W 35.6N 73.9W 40.3N 68.0W 45.6N 57.1W
BAMD 35.5N 79.6W 45.6N 70.8W 55.2N 54.7W 57.2N 30.6W
BAMM 33.5N 77.0W 42.9N 68.8W 51.5N 52.2W 52.7N 27.4W
LBAR 37.8N 77.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 62KTS..............54KTS..........31KTS..........0KTS
DSHP 49KTS..............32KTS..........0KTS

ED

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Nicole Fades Away	MikeC	Tue Sep 28 2010 06:14 PM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	MichaelA	Wed Sep 29 2010 08:51 PM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	Orion1962	Wed Sep 29 2010 08:38 PM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	Ed Dunham	Wed Sep 29 2010 08:31 PM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	MichaelA	Wed Sep 29 2010 07:49 PM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	BracGypsy	Wed Sep 29 2010 06:44 PM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	MichaelA	Wed Sep 29 2010 06:22 PM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	MichaelA	Wed Sep 29 2010 06:15 PM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	BracGypsy	Wed Sep 29 2010 05:55 PM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	Lamar-Plant City	Wed Sep 29 2010 04:24 PM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	BracGypsy	Wed Sep 29 2010 03:47 PM
Re: TD16 - Subtropical?	MikeC	Wed Sep 29 2010 03:05 PM
Re: TD16 - Subtropical?	Ed Dunham	Wed Sep 29 2010 01:13 PM
Re: TD16 - Subtropical?	berrywr	Wed Sep 29 2010 12:30 PM
Re: TD16 - Subtropical?	danielw	Wed Sep 29 2010 12:00 PM
Re: TD16 - Subtropical?	MikeC	Wed Sep 29 2010 11:01 AM
Re: TD16 - Subtropical?	MikeC	Wed Sep 29 2010 10:56 AM
Re: TD16 - Subtropical?	MikeC	Wed Sep 29 2010 10:35 AM
Re: TD16 - Subtropical?	st	Wed Sep 29 2010 10:32 AM
Re: TD16 - Subtropical?	MikeC	Wed Sep 29 2010 08:44 AM
Re: TD16 - Subtropical?	mikethewreck	Wed Sep 29 2010 08:43 AM
Re: TD16 - Subtropical?	MikeC	Wed Sep 29 2010 08:17 AM
TD16 - Subtropical?	berrywr	Wed Sep 29 2010 02:27 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued	WesnWylie	Tue Sep 28 2010 09:07 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued	MikeC	Tue Sep 28 2010 08:40 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued	MichaelA	Tue Sep 28 2010 06:37 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued	cieldumort	Tue Sep 28 2010 06:30 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued	Ed Dunham	Tue Sep 28 2010 06:14 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued	MikeC	Tue Sep 28 2010 04:09 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued	Josh Delsman	Tue Sep 28 2010 03:49 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued	Josh Delsman	Tue Sep 28 2010 03:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued	MikeC	Tue Sep 28 2010 03:19 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued	crpeavley	Tue Sep 28 2010 03:17 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued	Steve H1	Tue Sep 28 2010 03:11 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued	MikeC	Tue Sep 28 2010 02:55 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued	MikeC	Tue Sep 28 2010 02:49 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued	crpeavley	Tue Sep 28 2010 02:46 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued	MikeC	Tue Sep 28 2010 02:41 PM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	NewWatcher	Tue Sep 28 2010 02:37 PM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	WPBSUE	Tue Sep 28 2010 02:18 PM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	MikeC	Tue Sep 28 2010 01:58 PM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	Joeyfl	Tue Sep 28 2010 01:44 PM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	k___g	Tue Sep 28 2010 01:14 PM
Watches and Warnings are Up	danielw	Tue Sep 28 2010 11:23 AM
TD 16 almost Nicole	danielw	Tue Sep 28 2010 11:11 AM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	scottsvb	Tue Sep 28 2010 10:54 AM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	NewWatcher	Tue Sep 28 2010 10:52 AM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	weathernet	Tue Sep 28 2010 10:43 AM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	danielw	Tue Sep 28 2010 10:21 AM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	MikeC	Tue Sep 28 2010 10:12 AM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	allan	Tue Sep 28 2010 10:12 AM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida	Ed Dunham	Tue Sep 28 2010 10:06 AM

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