cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
Tue Sep 28 2010 06:30 PM
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A veritable smorgasbord out there in the Caribbean tonight. More or less it's monsoon trough meet subtropical cyclone meet extra-tropical transition, and yet with none taking a commanding role so far.
Considering the very low pressure for being "just" a depression, interaction with the upper trough and surface front to its north and northwest, character of its winds, precip and more, 16 is possibly more accurately if not best described as a sheared subtropical cyclone (and arguably a sheared marginal subtropical storm, already). The strongest surface winds, consisting of bouts approaching or even just exceeding 39MPH, and almost all of the heavier showers and storms, are much removed from the coc & primarily within the deep, streaming convection to the southeast of the center. Within the cyclone's broad center, which has been sort of hanging out near the Isle of Youth just south of western Cuba, pressures are fairly uniform and relatively low, winds are pretty light, and convection is almost non-existent.
Should the center of 16 tighten up a good bit, then it may be expected to behave more or less like most classic tropical storms. However, given the mess, one should not focus at all on the center of 16, but rather expect a somewhat large but potentially inconsistent area of bad weather of a transitory nature: for a while located here - later shifting a bit more over there - and so on.
And so unless and until 16 really tightens up, for the southeast, Cuba, and nearby offshore islands, the worst concern is likely to be a high risk of the upper trough and front exiting off the CONUS wringing out the very deep tropical moisture associated with 16 - resulting in flooding.
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