Small Paula Likely to stay south of Florida

It's official:

satellite imagery...surface observations and data from an Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the low pressure
area near the coast of Honduras has become a tropical storm...and
an intensifying one at that. In the last couple of hours the
aircraft found a central pressure of 1000 mb and flight-level and
SFMR winds that support an initial intensity of 50 kt...and this
could be a bit conservative. The intensity forecast is above the
SHIPS and lgem guidance given the current intensity trends...and
Paula could reach hurricane status in the next 24 hours. Beyond
that time...Paula may encounter some stronger winds aloft on the
southern edge of the westerlies. The intensity guidance shows
a broad peak from 36 to 72 hours and then slow weakening at days 4
and 5. The official forecast follows this trend and is closest to
the lgem at days 3 through 5.
The initial motion estimate is 315/8 based on aircraft fixes and
earlier estimates of the location of the developing center. Paula
is currently moving around the southwestern side of a subtropical
ridge that extends across the northern Caribbean. Over the next
couple of days...the western edge of the ridge weakens as a broad
deep-layer trough moves east across the southeastern United States.
This should cause the cyclone to turn toward the northwest and
north within 48 hours. After that time...most of the guidance
suggests that the trough will move east and leave the cyclone
behind in an area of weak steering currents over the northwestern
Caribbean. The official forecast shows Paula drifting slowly
eastward at days 3 and 4...with a slow southward motion at day 5.
This forecast is based on a blend of the GFS...UKMET...and
ECMWF...but confidence is quite low in the details of the track
forecast at this time range.
Based on the forecast...a Hurricane Warning has been issued for
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 11/2100z 16.0n 84.0w 50 kt
12hr VT 12/0600z 16.8n 84.8w 55 kt
24hr VT 12/1800z 18.3n 86.2w 65 kt
36hr VT 13/0600z 19.6n 86.6w 70 kt
48hr VT 13/1800z 20.0n 86.4w 70 kt
72hr VT 14/1800z 20.0n 85.5w 70 kt
96hr VT 15/1800z 20.0n 85.0w 65 kt
120hr VT 16/1800z 19.5n 85.0w 65 kt

$$
forecaster Brennan

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