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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 275 (Idalia) , Major: 275 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 275 (Idalia) Major: 275 (Idalia)
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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge
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Posts: 296
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Re: Paula Forecast Lounge
      Tue Oct 12 2010 06:01 AM

Well I for one, feel that whatever impact caused by Paula is in the "near term" rather than long term. Meaning, regardless whether Paula were to stall just south of Cuba, just east of Yucatan, or even 150 miles west of Key West....if significantly dryer air ushers in behind the anticipated front this weekend, than this ( along with shear ) will likely mean Paula's demise.

The risk is however, should Paula continue to intensify and perhaps approach Major Hurricane status, such conditions could threaten Yucatan, Western Cuba, and yes....South Florida prior to such infiltration of cooler dryer air.

Too early yet to say what impact upper level winds will have on Paula in 3-4 days, however 0Z NOGAPS brings Paula to the Florida Straights as does GFDL. Will be watching closely over the next few runs to see if NHC starts to carry Paula more northward into the S.E. Gulf, rather than start a meandering eastward motion south of Cuba. I am starting to consider more likely that this deepening system will continue NNW/Northward with a more "poleward" advance and potentially pass west of W. Cuba, and then move N.E. with the increasing southwesterly flow aloft. Not to sure if upper air will compromise Paula's strength at such a time or not though.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Paula Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Oct 12 2010 06:01 AM
. * * Re: Paula Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Mon Oct 11 2010 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Paula Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Tue Oct 12 2010 01:22 AM
. * * Re: Paula Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Tue Oct 12 2010 03:31 AM
. * * Re: Paula Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Oct 12 2010 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Paula Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Wed Oct 13 2010 02:42 AM
. * * Re: Paula Forecast Lounge WesnWylie   Wed Oct 13 2010 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Paula Forecast Lounge Owlguin   Wed Oct 13 2010 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Paula Forecast Lounge doug   Wed Oct 13 2010 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Paula Forecast Lounge weathernet   Tue Oct 12 2010 06:01 AM
. * * Re: Paula Forecast Lounge weathernet   Tue Oct 12 2010 02:59 PM

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