Paula Forecast Lounge - FLHurricane.com

This morning's satellite presentation would certainly indicate that little ( if any ) strengthening has occurred over the last few hours. Though holding its own, it appears to me that there is some type of southeasterly ( or SSE ) shear at hand. Given the diminutive size of Paula and the typically quicker fluctuation a small tropical cyclone undergoes given larger scale impact on such a system, I would even anticipate some weakening as early as late tonight or into tomorrow morning. I would not be surprised if recon reports slightly higher winds at some point during the day given short term heating of the day and its rather small core. Beyond that however, relative dry air inflow from the system's southwest and west and north would seem to mitigate much ( if any ) strengthening today, followed by perhaps slow weakening given the less protected small core. In fact, there seems to be a complete void of any "feed" via the Pacific ITCZ and its own circulation hardly pulling in moisture from the lower latitudes of the W. Caribbean.

Should any weakening occur during the day, it would not surprise me if the low to mid level easterlies were to carry the system more westward and bury itself into the Yucatan - end of story. If Paula were to deepen slightly or at minimum hold her own, than I would assume that given its current forward motion and speed would give me reason to think that enough of a pull may exist for Paula to clip the N.E. corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, then 'round just north of 22N, and rather than stall - move ENE perhaps scraping the N. Cuba coastline or perhaps threading the needle through the Florida Straights as a ( still tropical but relative insignificant ) minimal tropical storm with no consequential impact to South Florida, the Keys, or Bahamas. Perhaps a very slight flooding risk to some localized interior mountainous regions of East Central Cuba.

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