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#Beryl forms in the Central Atlantic and forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend, Hurricane and Tropical watches for some of the Windwards likely issued tomorrow.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 303 (Idalia) , Major: 303 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 303 (Idalia) Major: 303 (Idalia)

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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
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Posts: 2329
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys
Thu Oct 14 2010 01:37 PM

Quote:

Probably so... but looking at the WV this morning, it looks like the center is North of the track. Paula is still moving NE and not ENE.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html
The Keys may get more rain than originally expected.

This observation is both correct and incorrect, depending on perspective.

Much of the bad weather associated with Paula is indeed still heading NE, rather than ENE. This is due to the very strong southwesterly upper-level winds blowing deep convection away from the tropical cyclone, and up to the northeast. In addition, a remnant boundary cuts across south of Florida, serving to enhance lift, and giving even more of an appearance that "Paula" is northeast of where she has been forecast to be at this time.

Despite all this this, the center of Paula's actual low level circulation has been starting to turn ENE, as advertised. In fact, there are even a few hints that the center of Paula may already be starting to feel the first of possibly many pushes to the east, which may ultimately end up being pushes to the ESE, SE and even S.

You can make out Paula's low level center much better using Visible satellite images. Water vapor images are actually often a poor choice when attempting to determine where a surface cyclone's center is.

This link can take you to a very good Visible loop of Paula (time-sensitive).

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Small Paula Likely to stay south of Florida	MikeC	Thu Oct 14 2010 01:37 PM
Re: Small Paula Likely to stay south of Florida	Hurric	Mon Oct 18 2010 10:17 PM
Paula.... Gone!	danielw	Fri Oct 15 2010 10:37 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys	cieldumort	Thu Oct 14 2010 01:37 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys	Beach	Thu Oct 14 2010 08:10 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys	doug	Wed Oct 13 2010 03:56 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys	danielw	Wed Oct 13 2010 12:20 PM
Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys	danielw	Wed Oct 13 2010 11:57 AM
Re: Paula RECON	weathernet	Wed Oct 13 2010 11:10 AM
Re: Paula RECON	weathernet	Wed Oct 13 2010 10:03 AM
Re: Paula RECON	k___g	Tue Oct 12 2010 05:32 PM
Re: Paula RECON	MikeC	Tue Oct 12 2010 04:58 PM
Re: Paula RECON	Mike V	Tue Oct 12 2010 04:01 PM
Re: Paula RECON	Weather Mania	Tue Oct 12 2010 03:54 PM
Re: Paula RECON	doug	Tue Oct 12 2010 03:29 PM
Re: Paula RECON	MikeC	Tue Oct 12 2010 03:27 PM
Re: Paula RECON	Mike V	Tue Oct 12 2010 03:16 PM
Re: Paula RECON	MikeC	Tue Oct 12 2010 02:31 PM
Re: Paula RECON	MichaelA	Tue Oct 12 2010 01:44 PM
Re: Paula RECON	Bloodstar	Tue Oct 12 2010 01:35 PM
Re: Paula RECON	MichaelA	Tue Oct 12 2010 01:31 PM
Re: Paula RECON	cieldumort	Tue Oct 12 2010 01:27 PM
Re: Paula RECON	Bloodstar	Tue Oct 12 2010 01:16 PM
Re: Paula RECON	danielw	Tue Oct 12 2010 02:56 AM
Re: Paula RECON	danielw	Tue Oct 12 2010 01:22 AM
Re: Paula RECON	weathernet	Tue Oct 12 2010 01:14 AM
Re: Paula RECON	WeatherNut	Tue Oct 12 2010 01:10 AM
Paula RECON	danielw	Tue Oct 12 2010 12:54 AM
Re: Western Caribbean	OrlandoDan	Mon Oct 11 2010 04:40 PM
Re: Western Caribbean	MichaelA	Mon Oct 11 2010 04:27 PM
Re: Western Caribbean	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Mon Oct 11 2010 04:22 PM
Re: Western Caribbean	MichaelA	Mon Oct 11 2010 04:01 PM
Re: Western Caribbean	cieldumort	Mon Oct 11 2010 03:55 PM
Re: Western Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Mon Oct 11 2010 03:48 PM
Re: Western Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Mon Oct 11 2010 03:41 PM
Re: Western Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Mon Oct 11 2010 03:13 PM
Re: Western Caribbean	MichaelA	Mon Oct 11 2010 01:32 PM
Re: Western Caribbean	danielw	Mon Oct 11 2010 01:08 PM
Re: Western Caribbean	cieldumort	Mon Oct 11 2010 01:01 PM
Re: Western Caribbean	MichaelA	Mon Oct 11 2010 09:40 AM

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