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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Milton) , Major: 43 (Milton) Florida - Any: 43 (Milton) Major: 43 (Milton)
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys
      Thu Oct 14 2010 01:37 PM

Quote:

Probably so... but looking at the WV this morning, it looks like the center is North of the track. Paula is still moving NE and not ENE.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html
The Keys may get more rain than originally expected.




This observation is both correct and incorrect, depending on perspective.

Much of the bad weather associated with Paula is indeed still heading NE, rather than ENE. This is due to the very strong southwesterly upper-level winds blowing deep convection away from the tropical cyclone, and up to the northeast. In addition, a remnant boundary cuts across south of Florida, serving to enhance lift, and giving even more of an appearance that "Paula" is northeast of where she has been forecast to be at this time.

Despite all this this, the center of Paula's actual low level circulation has been starting to turn ENE, as advertised. In fact, there are even a few hints that the center of Paula may already be starting to feel the first of possibly many pushes to the east, which may ultimately end up being pushes to the ESE, SE and even S.

You can make out Paula's low level center much better using Visible satellite images. Water vapor images are actually often a poor choice when attempting to determine where a surface cyclone's center is.

This link can take you to a very good Visible loop of Paula (time-sensitive).

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Small Paula Likely to stay south of Florida MikeCAdministrator Thu Oct 14 2010 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Small Paula Likely to stay south of Florida Hurric   Mon Oct 18 2010 10:17 PM
. * * Paula.... Gone! danielwAdministrator   Fri Oct 15 2010 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys cieldumort   Thu Oct 14 2010 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys Beach   Thu Oct 14 2010 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys doug   Wed Oct 13 2010 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 13 2010 12:20 PM
. * * Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 13 2010 11:57 AM
. * * Re: Paula RECON weathernet   Wed Oct 13 2010 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Paula RECON weathernet   Wed Oct 13 2010 10:03 AM
. * * Re: Paula RECON k___g   Tue Oct 12 2010 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Paula RECON MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 12 2010 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Paula RECON Mike V   Tue Oct 12 2010 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Paula RECON Weather Mania   Tue Oct 12 2010 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Paula RECON doug   Tue Oct 12 2010 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Paula RECON MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 12 2010 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Paula RECON Mike V   Tue Oct 12 2010 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Paula RECON MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 12 2010 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Paula RECON MichaelA   Tue Oct 12 2010 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Paula RECON Bloodstar   Tue Oct 12 2010 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Paula RECON MichaelA   Tue Oct 12 2010 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Paula RECON cieldumort   Tue Oct 12 2010 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Paula RECON Bloodstar   Tue Oct 12 2010 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Paula RECON danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 12 2010 02:56 AM
. * * Re: Paula RECON danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 12 2010 01:22 AM
. * * Re: Paula RECON weathernet   Tue Oct 12 2010 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Paula RECON WeatherNut   Tue Oct 12 2010 01:10 AM
. * * Paula RECON danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 12 2010 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean OrlandoDan   Mon Oct 11 2010 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean MichaelA   Mon Oct 11 2010 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Oct 11 2010 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean MichaelA   Mon Oct 11 2010 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean cieldumort   Mon Oct 11 2010 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Oct 11 2010 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Oct 11 2010 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Oct 11 2010 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean MichaelA   Mon Oct 11 2010 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 11 2010 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean cieldumort   Mon Oct 11 2010 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean MichaelA   Mon Oct 11 2010 09:40 AM

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