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Bloodstar
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Posts: 467
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave
      Tue Oct 19 2010 03:51 PM

At this point, I can't imagine this will be a Tropical Depression at 5PM, the low is extremely broad and not very organized. In addition, there isn't a very well defined concentration of persistent thunderstorm activity. And while I'm sure there are cases where storms looked worse and were still designated a Tropical Depression, both factors above will probably keep it from designation.

If it has more thunderstorm activity, or the pressure gradient tightens up, it'll get designated IMO. It needs one or the other to happen first though.

Even though the HH sent a Vortex message, that doesn't automatically mean it'll get upgraded. Ultimately the NHC makes the call. and I don't see them pulling the trigger at 5PM.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave MikeCAdministrator Tue Oct 19 2010 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave weathernet   Wed Oct 20 2010 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave MichaelA   Wed Oct 20 2010 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 20 2010 08:35 AM
. * * Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 20 2010 07:57 AM
. * * Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave weathernet   Wed Oct 20 2010 01:54 AM
. * * Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave Edski   Tue Oct 19 2010 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave Bloodstar   Tue Oct 19 2010 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave cieldumort   Tue Oct 19 2010 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 19 2010 02:27 PM

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