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T.D. Pamela sending abundant moisture into TX and OK w flooding rains likely as well as severe Tstorms and tornadoes possible.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 34 (Nicholas) , Major: 49 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1103 (Michael) Major: 1103 (Michael)
 


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Area of Interest - Richard
      Thu Oct 21 2010 10:25 AM

Ed, there will be a change in the weather pattern as the trough over the east lifts out and is replaced with a strengthening upper ridge; a pattern typically seen in the middle of summer and something we haven't seen around here in a while...a "Bermuda" ridge. I'm not going to speculate on track until it clears the Yucatan. I do believe a more northerly track is likely given the strength of the ridge in the upcoming days. As of this typing, I haven't looked at the entire 12Z ensemble; I'm out of town this week, however I will look at today's and tonight's data and get with you later. Now...everybody else...please keep all the nightmare scenarios to a minimum. I have no idea where it's going when at best we're still several days away from grasping when and where. Is it likely there will be a landfall in the USA; yes! It has to be remembered that the SE USA and FL have been quite cool of late and dry with many areas are experiencing varying levels of drought. It is expected SSTs near the coast will be equally cool. We're about 72 hours away from knowing when and where in broad strokes.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Area of Interest - Richard Ed DunhamAdministrator Thu Oct 21 2010 10:25 AM
. * * Re: Area of Interest - Richard Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Oct 21 2010 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Area of Interest - Richard Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Oct 23 2010 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Area of Interest - Richard berrywr   Thu Oct 21 2010 10:25 AM
. * * Re: Area of Interest - Richard Lamar-Plant City   Thu Oct 21 2010 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Area of Interest - Richard MichaelA   Thu Oct 21 2010 11:53 AM

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