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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

rgd
Weather Hobbyist

Reged:
Posts: 65

Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
Thu Oct 21 2010 04:42 PM

If you read the 5pm discussion on this storm the models have shifted west now then the east which they were.

All in all it will be a few days before we can say ANYTHING about where it is gonna go.And that means from Florida to texas to nowhere.Here is the 5pm part i am talking about.

Tropical Storm Richard Discussion Number 4

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 21, 2010

The best estimate of current motion is about 155/3. A trough over
the western Atlantic and northwestern Caribbean has been steering
the system slowly southeastward during the past day or so.
However... this trough is in the process of lifting out of the
area...which will allow a ridge to build over the Gulf of Mexico.
While the models are in reasonable agreement on the storm
eventually turning back toward the west in a day or so...they are
in rather poor agreement after that time due to varying ridge
strengths over the Gulf of Mexico. All of the forecast guidance has
shifted well toward the left...after moving toward the right
overnight. Given the erratic behavior of the model guidance...a
luxury the official forecast does not have...this is a low
confidence track forecast. The model consensus is actually now in
good agreement with the previous NHC track...and little change will
be made to the NHC forecast. The new 48-hour forecast point is
close enough to Honduras to warrant a tropical storm watch.

Edited by rgd (Thu Oct 21 2010 04:46 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Richard Forecast Lounge	doug	Thu Oct 21 2010 04:42 PM
Re: Richard Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Oct 23 2010 01:28 PM
Re: Richard Forecast Lounge	vineyardsaker	Thu Oct 21 2010 03:30 PM
Re: Invest 99L	MichaelA	Mon Oct 18 2010 06:29 PM
Re: Invest 99L	LoisCane	Mon Oct 18 2010 09:04 PM
Re: Invest 99L	doug	Tue Oct 19 2010 08:50 AM
Re: Invest 99L	MichaelA	Tue Oct 19 2010 01:55 PM
Re: Invest 99L	Edski	Tue Oct 19 2010 05:38 PM
Re: Invest 99L	weathernet	Tue Oct 19 2010 07:24 PM
Re: Invest 99L	weathernet	Wed Oct 20 2010 01:57 AM
Re: Invest 99L	danielw	Wed Oct 20 2010 08:08 AM
Re: Invest 99L	MichaelA	Wed Oct 20 2010 09:16 AM
Re: Invest 99L	Owlguin	Wed Oct 20 2010 03:10 PM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	LoisCane	Wed Oct 20 2010 10:21 PM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	danielw	Thu Oct 21 2010 06:30 AM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Thu Oct 21 2010 07:04 AM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	danielw	Thu Oct 21 2010 07:29 AM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Thu Oct 21 2010 08:28 AM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Thu Oct 21 2010 10:35 AM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Thu Oct 21 2010 11:21 AM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Thu Oct 21 2010 11:25 AM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	Marknole	Thu Oct 21 2010 04:32 PM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	rgd	Thu Oct 21 2010 04:42 PM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	Owlguin	Thu Oct 21 2010 03:11 PM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	berrywr	Sat Oct 23 2010 02:34 AM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	IsoFlame	Thu Oct 21 2010 09:34 PM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	doug	Fri Oct 22 2010 10:47 AM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Fri Oct 22 2010 11:56 AM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	new	Fri Oct 22 2010 12:42 PM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Fri Oct 22 2010 12:55 PM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	doug	Fri Oct 22 2010 02:42 PM
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge	Edski	Fri Oct 22 2010 05:33 PM

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