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Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L
Thu Oct 28 2010 07:17 PM
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Gonna be close as to which might be designated to T..D. first, between 91L and 92L, but my money is on 91L. Won't be as fast as I might had thought earlier to day due to convergence at such a low latitude, however because shear is still impacting 92L and 90L so significantly, I see 91L possibly gaining just enough latitude by late tomorrow along with its more favorable upper air conditions, that assuming that the other two systems take a while longer for the upper air conditions to improve, am guessing that 91L with all its convection will simply need show a little more significant banding features and given its overall size, potential need for watches for the islands......, perhaps a T.D. ( or even skip to T.S.? ) between noon and 5:00 tomm.
Though not really able to pay much reliable attention to downstream models yet ( at least until we have a true identified center and actual motion fix ), the concept of even looking to see if this could be any kind of downstream threat to the U.S. seems ludicrous. The fact that this is an approaching system from the east and being October 28, would cause one to imagine a typically immediate northward turn. Add to that the fact, that we have already had two fronts drop some very dry air into the west/central Caribbean, with an appearant long wave pattern looking like its going to set up shop over the Eastern U.S. seaboard. Just goes to show that during this period of seasonal transition, along with perhaps amplified ridging in the east, perhaps enhanced by a very strong La Nina....., you just can't quite know its over until the westerlies have really taken a firm hold in the lower latitudes.
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