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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)
 


General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

cieldumort
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Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L
      Thu Oct 28 2010 11:42 PM

It's a cliff-hanger, if you're placing bets on which one gets the upgrade first. My money is still on 92L, but wouldn't it be something to see them both upgraded at the same time... in the last few days of an October! Sheesh!

My reasoning for 92L deserving an upgrade first is simple: I think 92L is basically already there, and could arguably go strait to being named, bypassing TD advisories, whereas 91L may just have a little further to go to develop a stable LLC core.

92L's developing LLC has apparently tucked further under the much more convectively active MLC, and the two have come into much better alignment, making for tightening and increasingly colocated mid and low level centers within a ball of deepening convection.

And pressures close to this center are really falling, with wind responding in kind, with the wind-pressure relationship classically characteristic of a tropical depression or storm.

For example, take a look at the current trends at Station 41049, located at 27.5N 63.0W: (LINK)

Only (current) hold up for 92L to get the bump, I think, is the possibility of some decoupling over the next few hours.

It will be very interesting to see what NHC does with each of these later tonight and by tomorrow morning.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort Thu Oct 28 2010 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort   Fri Oct 29 2010 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L weathernet   Fri Oct 29 2010 05:37 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L weathernet   Fri Oct 29 2010 06:55 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort   Fri Oct 29 2010 07:10 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L berrywr   Fri Oct 29 2010 09:55 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L MichaelA   Fri Oct 29 2010 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort   Fri Oct 29 2010 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L doug   Fri Oct 29 2010 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L florida central   Fri Oct 29 2010 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort   Fri Oct 29 2010 05:59 PM
. * * Unofficially "Tomas" berrywr   Fri Oct 29 2010 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L MichaelA   Fri Oct 29 2010 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L MichaelA   Wed Oct 27 2010 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L MichaelA   Thu Oct 28 2010 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort   Thu Oct 28 2010 04:58 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L doug   Thu Oct 28 2010 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort   Thu Oct 28 2010 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L Lamar-Plant City   Thu Oct 28 2010 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L weathernet   Thu Oct 28 2010 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort   Thu Oct 28 2010 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort   Thu Oct 28 2010 11:02 PM

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