cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L
Thu Oct 28 2010 07:42 PM
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It's a cliff-hanger, if you're placing bets on which one gets the upgrade first. My money is still on 92L, but wouldn't it be something to see them both upgraded at the same time... in the last few days of an October! Sheesh!
My reasoning for 92L deserving an upgrade first is simple: I think 92L is basically already there, and could arguably go strait to being named, bypassing TD advisories, whereas 91L may just have a little further to go to develop a stable LLC core.
92L's developing LLC has apparently tucked further under the much more convectively active MLC, and the two have come into much better alignment, making for tightening and increasingly colocated mid and low level centers within a ball of deepening convection.
And pressures close to this center are really falling, with wind responding in kind, with the wind-pressure relationship classically characteristic of a tropical depression or storm.
For example, take a look at the current trends at Station 41049, located at 27.5N 63.0W: (LINK)
Only (current) hold up for 92L to get the bump, I think, is the possibility of some decoupling over the next few hours.
It will be very interesting to see what NHC does with each of these later tonight and by tomorrow morning.
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